Elmendorf, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

096
FXUS64 KEWX 110538
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1238 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures slightly above mid September averages.
- Uncertain very low rain chances.
&&
.SHORT TERM (THROUGH FRIDAY)...
Subtropical Ridge builds over our area the remainder of this week.
The subsidence and dry airmass aloft with PWs below mid September
averages keep rain chances out of the forecast for most areas.
However, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible due to a
wave of average PWs near the Coastal Plains today and areas south
and west of San Antonio to the Rio Grande Plains on Friday. Not much
change in high temperatures is expected while low temperatures warm
a little due to increased dewpoints.
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
The wave of seasonable PWs lingers along and west of the Rio Grande
this weekend allowing for isolated showers and thunderstorms each
day there. Elsewhere, the Subtropical Ridge axis and its subsidence
and dry airmass keep rain out of the forecast. The passage of a
series of mid level troughs well north of our area and a potential
tropical system off the Pacific coast of Mexico may result in an
increase in moisture next week. This may lead to low chances of
showers and thunderstorms across most areas by the middle of next
week. However, it must be noted that most models/ensemble members
continue the dry pattern. Slightly above mid September average
temperatures are expected with only subtle day to day changes
indicated.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
Yet another fairly quiet night on the aviation desk. There is a low
chance for MVFR ceilings to develop between 1500-2000 feet at all
sites, particularly DRT, SAT, and SSF late this morning, but will
continue to hedge towards a scattered layer. Otherwise, light winds
and VFR ceilings are expected through the forecast period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              72  97  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  70  97  69  96 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     69  97  69  96 /   0  10   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            69  92  68  92 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           74  93  74  93 /   0  10  10  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        69  95  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             70  95  68  94 /   0  10   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        69  97  68  97 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   69  95  68  96 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       73  96  71  96 /   0  10   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           73  97  72  97 /   0  10   0   0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...MMM

NWS EWX Office Area Forecast Discussion