Ellis, Indiana Weather Forecast Discussion

853
FXUS63 KIND 250659
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
259 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers linger this morning
- Fog is possible overnight tonight
- Warm and dry weather resumes Friday...through most if not all of
  next week, with above normal highs often near the low 80s
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Early This Morning...
The upper trough axis remains to the west of the area early this
morning, while a surface low is moving northeast through Kentucky.
Forcing from these are producing rain across Kentucky and southern
Indiana, with some of it in the southern forecast area.
Similar conditions should continue through the predawn hours with
forcing continuing. Some forcing from deformation will add to the
mix, possibly allowing the rain to spread farther north. Will have
chance PoPs across the south and far eastern forecast area, with
lower PoPs northwest.
Lower level moisture will work southwest into the area, bringing in
lower ceilings. However, at the moment, it appears that the bulk of
any fog will remain east of central Indiana.
Today...
As the upper trough axis shifts east through the forecast area this
morning, forcing will continue mainly across the southeastern
forecast area. Better forcing and moisture will be east of the area,
so will keep PoPs on the lower end. PoPs will diminish as the trough
moves east.
Drier air will work in from the northwest, breaking up the clouds.
Temperatures will peak in the mid and upper 70s.
CAMs are trying to generate isolated showers in the east this
afternoon with lingering weak instability, but confidence is not
high enough to include these.
Tonight...
Skies will become mostly clear this evening, and winds will
diminish. This will set the stage for some fog development. At the
moment, uncertainty in how much low level moisture will be around is
enough to only mention patchy fog overnight. However, if enough
moisture lingers, areas of dense fog are possible, especially north.
Temperatures will be cooler, with lows in the lower to middle 50s
expected. Favored cold areas in the north could dip into the upper
40s.
&&
.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Dry and rather warm conditions will prevail across central Indiana
through September`s final days...as another subtropical ridge builds
northward while crossing the central CONUS...building into the
Midwest and Great lakes by early next week.  The staunch jet
retracted north of the Canadian border, and a disturbance attempting
to lift northward through the Rockies...will promote a disorganized,
yet blocked omega pattern.  Weak but broad surface high pressure
will be aligned from the Midwest to the Northeast.  Unseasonably
high 1000-500 mb thickness values will glide above 570 dm over the
CWA late this weekend.
This will all translate to what is considered pleasant late summer
weather for the region...or a tad warm and perhaps a touch humid for
early autumn.  The last of this week`s weather system`s clouds
should depart Friday morning...with mostly clear skies then
prevailing through the weekend.  Light winds will veer through
northerly directions into early Monday...promoting dewpoints and
morning lows in the 50s...and afternoon highs slowly moderating from
upper 70s to low 80s by Sunday.
The long term`s second half is expected to remain rain-free, while
systems well to our east and north weakly influence local
conditions. Atlantic tropical system(s) approaching the Mid-Atlantic
coast through about the Tuesday timeframe should couple with mainly
light east-northeasterly breezes to bring more moderate humidity to
at least a portion of the CWA, under some mid/high clouds.  The
northern jet should spill south off the eastern side of the blocked
ridge by the end of the period, trending to at least modest
decreases in dewpoints and readings, albeit still a bit above
seasonal levels.  The normal max/min at Indianapolis through the
long term is 73/52.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 115 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Impacts:
- MVFR ceilings return overnight, low chance for IFR
- VFR returns late morning into early afternoon Thursday
- Showers possible overnight, mainly at KBMG
Discussion:
Lower clouds will continue to develop overnight, falling into the
MVFR category. IFR cannot be ruled out, but confidence is not high
enough to include at this time. As low pressure exits and some
heating occurs, ceilings will mix out, allowing VFR to return by
early afternoon.
A few light showers will mainly be around the southern sites into
Thursday morning, with KBMG the most likely to see any rain.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...AGM
AVIATION...50

NWS IND Office Area Forecast Discussion