El Paso, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

876
FXUS64 KEPZ 091700
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1100 AM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1100 AM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025
- Temperatures will be 5 to 8 degrees above average through the
  end of the week.
- Wednesday and Thursday will be mainly dry, just a slight chance
  for thunderstorms in area mountains and near the Arizona border.
- Moisture pushes east for Friday into Saturday bringing isolated
  thunderstorms east of the Divide along with a gradual cool down
  in temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Models continue to be in good agreement along with ensemble means
for much of the next week. Upper high currently over the area will
be shifting east and stall out over the Northern Plains and
extending down into central Texas by the end of the week. At the
same time, a fairly strong upper low will be moving from northern
California into the Great Basin region. As all of this happens, a
moisture feed will bring some modest moisture into the AZ/NM
border region. This is where thunderstorm activity is expected for
Wed and Thu. Temperatures the next couple of days will remain well
above normal with 90s over most of the lowlands.
For Fri and Sat, we will start to come under the influence of the
upper low/trough off to the west with heights starting to lower
and flow turns from southerly to southwest. Moisture will also
start to push eastward and spread thunderstorm chances areawide,
with the greatest chances coming Fri into Sat morning. Not looking
like great coverage, but with the influence of the trough
approaching and PW`s in the 1-1.1" range, at least widely
scattered storm coverage is expected. May even get a few stronger
storms with increased shear developing east of the Continental
Divide.
Sunday is looking more like a down day right now as flow turns
more westerly and brings in drier air. Enough moisture may remain
over parts of Hudspeth County, but not high confidence. Things
still look interesting for early next week with a weak upper
trough developing over the Baja region. This weakness along with
upper high over the Midwest will setup an actually deep monsoonal
flow pattern with winds off the Gulf and heading right up into the
Borderland. NBM has widespread 30-40 PoPs and can`t argue with
that this far out. PW`s will get above normal and we could have
some locally heavy rain around the area for Mon/Tue. Temperatures
will also cool down closer to average or even below depending on
cloud cover.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025
P6SM FEW-SCT090-110 through early evening with just some isolated
thunder around the area. Very low confidence in these weak storms
actually getting to a terminal, so have no mention in the TAFs
for now. Storms will end quickly by 01Z and skies will become
SKC-FEW100. Winds generally AOB 10KTS out of the south-southwest
becoming more southeast overnight.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Temperatures will remain above average through at least Thursday
before cooling down closer to normal by early next week. RH`s will
fall into the mid teens to mid 20s through Thu and then about a 5%
increase for Fri/Sat. Dry conditions over most of the area as well
through Thu with only storm chances coming near the AZ border
region and an isolated storm on the Sacs. An upper trough moves
through Fri into Sat and brings widely scattered storms to the
entire area. Vent rates will mainly be very good across the area.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  73  97  72  96 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            67  91  66  89 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               65  94  64  93 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               66  95  65  93 /   0  10   0   0
Cloudcroft               51  71  50  70 /   0  20   0   0
Truth or Consequences    67  95  66  92 /  10   0   0  10
Silver City              64  88  63  85 /  10  20  10  20
Deming                   63  96  62  94 /   0   0   0  10
Lordsburg                66  93  65  90 /  10  20  10  20
West El Paso Metro       72  95  71  94 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                62  95  61  93 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             68  97  67  95 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               65  89  64  87 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   70  96  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             69  94  68  93 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           68  95  67  93 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            63  93  63  93 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    63  96  62  95 /   0   0   0  10
Columbus                 68  96  67  94 /   0   0   0  10
Orogrande                65  92  64  91 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  56  82  55  81 /  10  20   0   0
Mescalero                56  83  55  82 /   0  10   0   0
Timberon                 52  80  51  79 /   0  10   0   0
Winston                  55  86  54  83 /  10  20   0  10
Hillsboro                63  92  62  91 /  10  10   0  10
Spaceport                63  95  62  93 /   0   0   0  10
Lake Roberts             47  87  48  85 /  10  20  10  20
Hurley                   61  91  60  87 /  10  10  10  20
Cliff                    55  93  55  91 /   0  20  10  20
Mule Creek               50  90  51  87 /   0  20  10  20
Faywood                  63  89  62  87 /   0  10  10  10
Animas                   67  93  66  90 /  10  20  10  20
Hachita                  66  92  65  90 /  10  10  10  20
Antelope Wells           65  92  64  90 /   0  10  10  20
Cloverdale               64  87  63  85 /  10  20  20  20
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion