Du Pont, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

983
FXUS62 KJAX 170509
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
109 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...
.NEAR TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 106 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
Weak high pressure ridge in place and lingering dry airmass across
NE FL/SE GA will slowly moisten today and tonight as moisture
aloft begins to drift northward up the FL Peninsula into NE FL and
drift from the NW into inland SE GA through the next 24 hours.
This will re-introduce rainfall chances back into the region, but
overall they will remain low with only a slight chance of a shower
across inland SE GA to the NW of Waycross, while widely scattered
showers and isolated storms will be possible this afternoon across
Flagler/Putnam/Marion counties as the East Coast sea breeze pushes
inland this afternoon. Daytime temps return closer to normal
values with highs in the lower 90s inland, upper 80s along the
I-95 corridor and middle 80s at the Atlantic beachfront locations.
Not as cool tonight, but temps still slightly below normal, with
lows in the middle 60s inland, upper 60s along the I-95 corridor
and lower 70s at Atlantic beachfront locations. The slight
increase in low level moisture will lead to better fog formation
chances this morning and again late tonight/sunrise Thursday
morning, mainly over inland areas, with locally dense fog possible
along the I-10 corridor to the West of JAX, inland SE GA and the
Suwannee Valley of inland North FL, at this time not expecting
dense fog advisories, but Special Weather Statements may be
required around sunrise both mornings.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 106 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Thursday is expected to be a similar setup to Wednesday at this
time, as some drier air just barely hangs on for a good portion of
the area, mainly across the axis of what`s left of low level
ridging between about 50 miles north and south of the Fl/GA
border. For areas from about Gainesville to Saint Augustine
southward, PWATs around 1.5 to 1.6 inches and enough daytime
heating will bring some isolated to widely scattered showers and a
few thunderstorms as the afternoon seabreeze moves inland. From
about Waycross northward, PWATs will be just a bit lower, though
whats left of broad upper trough may be enough to once again
initiate a few showers. Enough weakening in the onshore flow will
likely curtail any Coastal Flood Advisory by Thursday, though will
of course monitor obs and trends through Wednesday Night. Temps
will be overall quite warm Wednesday - especially inland. Low 90s
will be common west of about I-95, with mid to upper 80s closer to
the major waters. Generally clearing skies Thursday Night with
perhaps just a very isolated shower lingering furthest south and
east by the coast with lows in the mid to upper 60s inland to low
70s by the coast.
Friday looks like a similar day to Thursday, with once again a few
isolated showers possible over mainly inland southeast GA as well
as far southeastern areas in northeast FL. For both Wednesday and
Thursday, the nature of the subtleties in available moisture as
well as the exact position will the moisture boundary to our south
will likely result in some minor changes to the forecast over the
next few days, though either day certainly not looking like a
"washout" by any means. The boundary nudging slightly further
north will ramp up onshore flow just a little bit Friday and
Friday Night, though looks as though more substantial changes wait
until the weekend and early next week - more on that below. Very
warm once again Friday with low 90s inland and mid to upper 80s
closer to the coast. Similar overnight lows Friday Night, ranging
from mid to upper 60s inland and low to mid 70s by the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 106 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
A ridge of high pressure builds across the southeastern states and
into north FL through Saturday and settles across the region
through Sunday, at the same time inducing broad troughing to
develop east of the Florida Peninsula. As advertised the past few
days, continuing to anticipate another northeasterly wind event
for the weekend and likely lingering into early next week, as
marine/coastal hazards re-establishing themselves will be likely
in addition to the returning chances of showers and some isolated
t`storms, especially for eastern areas. This ridge looks to break
down slightly by the Monday/Tuesday time frame which will weaken
the flow a bit, though plenty of low level moisture looks to
linger and therefore rain chances do so as well - though this
could ease coastal hazards somewhat. Temperatures trend generally
near to above normal for the long term, with Sunday looking like
the coolest day for most.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 106 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Except for inland fog potential early this morning at KVQQ and
KGNV, prevailing VFR conditions are forecast for this 06z TAF
period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 106 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Weak high pressure will be the prevailing weather feature through
Friday. An inverted trough will develop to the southeast over the
weekend, as high pressure strengthens to the north. The gradient
between these features will result in elevated onshore winds and
building seas with potential Small Craft Advisories.
Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rips Today and Thursday as onshore
flow continues to weaken with surf/breakers 2-3 ft today and
remaining around 2 feet on Thursday/Friday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 106 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Onshore flow continues to weaken and expect only borderline Minor
Flooding during high tide cycles on the St. Johns River from
downtown JAX southward through Putnam county with peak water
levels right around 1.5 ft above MHHW, so will keep Coastal Flood
Advisory in place through this evening, but will drop coastal
Duval from the Advisory since estuaries east of downtown JAX
appear to have fallen below minor flood levels.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  64  91  65 /  20  20  20   0
SSI  85  70  86  71 /   0   0  10   0
JAX  90  67  90  69 /   0   0  10   0
SGJ  87  70  87  72 /  10  20  20  10
GNV  91  66  93  67 /  10   0  10   0
OCF  89  67  90  68 /  40  20  20   0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ132-
     137-325-633.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$

NWS JAX Office Area Forecast Discussion