Dotson, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

504
FXUS64 KSHV 170634
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
134 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
...New DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
- Afternoon isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
  remain in the forecast over the next couple of days, along with
  above normal temperatures.
- Higher rain chances with near seasonal temperatures return by
  the end of the week and continue through the weekend, especially
  across our northern zones.
- Rain chances will continue and become more widespread across the
  region by the first of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
A pseudo Omega Block pattern remains across the CONUS, with upper
ridging stretching from the Texas to Michigan and upper troughing
across the Rockies and Plains, as well as the entire eastern
CONUS. However, the ridge is very weak. This has allowed a weak
short-wave on the backside of the eastern CONUS trough to move
into the region yesterday, resulting in some strong to severe
storms across our South-Central Arkansas and Northeast Louisiana
zones. Some weak outflow boundaries remain across the region from
that earlier convection, which could result in showers developing
overnight. However, coverage should remain very isolated, and
mostly across our Northeast and Central Louisiana zones. We should
see a similar set-up over the next couple of days, with
additional short-waves backdooring into the region. More isolated
to widely scattered convection will be possible during the
afternoon and early evening hours. Progs are hinting at isolated
convection being more spread out across the region, so decided to
put slight chance POPs over the entire forecast area for Wednesday
and Thursday. Above normal temperatures will remain across the
region during this period. Highs will top out in the low to mid
90s, with a few isolated locations in the upper 90s.
The upper pattern will start to shift by the end of the week into
the start of next weekend, as the upper ridge shifts eastward
into the Southeast CONUS. The aforementioned Rockies/Plains upper
trough will shift southward into the our neck of the woods,
putting us in more of a northwest flow pattern. Rain chances will
remain over the region on Friday and Saturday as disturbances move
across the flow. The best chances for precipitation will be along
and north of the I-20 corridor, with some rain possibly lingering
during the overnight period. Afternoon temperatures will remain
in the low to mid 90s in our southern zones, and closer to normal
in our northern zones due to the cloud cover and higher rain
chances.
By the end of the weekend into the first portion of next week, the
upper trough will dig southward through the region, with some
long-term guidance trying to develop a cut-off low across Central
Texas. A more widespread and wetter pattern would take shape under
this set-up, with slightly cooler afternoon highs. /20/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 816 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
For the 17/00z TAF period...VFR conditions have finally return to
all sites. There is some model hint that we could see some
additional isolated showers develop this evening across the
portions of North Louisiana, and maybe adjacent counties of East
Texas, but not expecting changes in flight conditions. We are
expecting some patchy fog at KELD/KMLU near daybreak, as light
winds and today`s rainfall will aid in that possibility. By the
end of the period, models hint again at some isolated afternoon
convection. But, confidence isn`t high enough to include in TAFs at
this time, so decided to keep out of the TAFs and amend if needed.
/20/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Spotter activation is not expected over the next 24 hours.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  73  94  73 /  20  20  20  10
MLU  95  70  94  70 /  20  20  20   0
DEQ  94  66  92  66 /  20  20  20  20
TXK  96  70  95  70 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  94  68  93  68 /  20  20  20   0
TYR  94  70  91  70 /  20  20  20  10
GGG  95  69  93  69 /  20  20  20  10
LFK  95  70  93  69 /  20  20  20   0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20

NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion