Doak Springs, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

076
FXUS64 KEWX 200551
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1251 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Continued warm conditions this weekend into next week
- Pattern uncertainty leading to low confidence in rain chances Tuesday
  through Thursday (currently 20-40%)
&&
.SHORT TERM (THROUGH SUNDAY)...
Warm conditions continue through the weekend with the vast
majority of South Central Texas remaining dry. Very isolated
afternoon and evening showers are forecast mostly favored over
the eastern half of the area. Otherwise, skies will be mostly
sunny each day with light southeasterly wind, though an
occasional gust up to 20 mph may be seen at times.
&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
Temperatures ramp up slightly Monday and Tuesday compared to
the weekend with widespread highs in the 90s Tuesday afternoon,
though a few locations could briefly see triple digit heat.
Models remain in disagreement on the exact placement of some
upper level features Tuesday through Thursday but generally an
upper level low will move across the Central Plains then remain
northeast of Texas through this time period. At the surface,
both the GFS and ECMWF now indicate a weak cold front moving
south into the area, though timing is the main discrepancy
between models. The front will be the main driver of any
precipitation chances across our area and could arrive sometime
between Tuesday night and Wednesday night and linger into
Thursday. Given the uncertainty in timing, lower NBM PoPs
generally from 20-40% seemed reasonable during the Tuesday to
Thursday timeframe for now. Behind the front temperatures cool
slightly closer to seasonable levels but remain warm through
late week. Some low rain chances are in the forecast beyond
Thursday but it`s too early to talk any details.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
All terminals are starting off VFR for this period. Low clouds
will develop later tonight. We expect ceilings in the San
Antonio area for a few hours after sunrise, but DRT and AUS
should remain scattered. By late morning all sites will be VFR
for the afternoon and evening. Winds will continue to be from
the southeast at 5-10 kts for most of the period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              72  96  74  97 /   0  10   0  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  71  95  73  97 /   0  10   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     71  95  72  97 /   0  10   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            70  92  72  93 /   0  10   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           75  97  76  98 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        71  94  72  95 /   0  10   0  10
Hondo Muni Airport             71  94  71  97 /   0  10   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        70  96  72  97 /   0  10   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   71  94  72  95 /   0  20   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       73  94  74  96 /   0  10   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           74  97  75  98 /   0  10   0   0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...27
LONG TERM...27
AVIATION...05

NWS EWX Office Area Forecast Discussion