Devils Elbow, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

090
FXUS63 KSGF 250704
AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
204 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Morning clouds and fog. Some fog may be dense...mainly over
  western Missouri and southeast Kansas.
- Above normal temperatures and dry weather this weekend into
  next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 203 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Upper level analysis shows an upper trough from a low centered
over lake Michigan through east TX, with a ridge axis over the
Rockies and low pressure pushing into CA. A surface frontal
system has pushed east into the bootheel of MO. Behind the
frontal system was a large area of stratus with LIFR/IFR
ceilings. Behind the stratus deck, areas of dense fog have
developed. The stratus and fog will likely continue through the
mid morning before beginning to burn off. Drier air should
continue to work into the area behind the upper trough and
frontal system and we should clear out during the afternoon.
Highs should be quite a bit warmer than yesterday with readings
in the mid 70s to around 80.
For tonight, a mostly clear sky, light wind and boundary layer
moisture still over the area, some additional fog may develop,
mainly over the western half of the CWA. Lows should dip back
into the mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 203 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
The trough will continue to shift east on Friday. Upper ridging
will eventually build into the area this weekend into the first
part of next week with generally dry conditions and warmer than
normal temperatures.
As we head into early October in the 8 to 14 day outlook, global
ensembles suggesting continuing the above normal temperatures
by about 4 to 6 degrees. Normal highs for this time of year are
in the mid 70s. No significant precipitation is expected during
this period.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
For the 06z TAFS, as the upper trough and frontal system
continue to push east across the area, stratus and fog will be
the main avitation hazards throughout the remainder of the night
into mid morning Thursday. Stratus was affecting most of the
area but the western 1/3 of the CWA. Behind the stratus, fog
quickly developed. LIFR/IFR conditions are expected at all 3 TAF
sites through the overnight into mid morning. With drier air
moving in behind the trough, the sites should clear out by mid
to late morning with VFR conditions through the early evening
hours. Some MVFR fog may begin to redevelop by late in the
evening on Thursday.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg

NWS SGF Office Area Forecast Discussion