Denison, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

111
FXUS64 KFWD 170627
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
127 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonably hot weather will continue this week with afternoon
  highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s.
- Isolated (15-20% chance) showers and storms are expected this
  afternoon and again tomorrow afternoon.
- There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms on a daily basis
  beginning Thursday night and continuing through early next
  week.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today through Thursday Afternoon/
Another tranquil morning is expected across North and Central
Texas as we head into midweek with this morning`s low temperatures
in the 60s to mid 70s. The region remains underneath a weakness
in the ridge aloft, allowing for another afternoon with a couple
showers and perhaps a storm or two possible. Lift will remain
quite nebulous, putting diurnal heating as the main mechanism for
isolated convective development. Showers/storms could pop up
anywhere, and have continued a broad-brushed 15-20% PoP through
the afternoon. However, CAM guidance is highlighting areas near
and east of I-35 as the better area of coverage and development.
Severe weather is not expected with this activity, though any more
robust storm could produce gusty winds and lightning. Most will
likely remain dry, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to mid
90s expected. Coverage will wane with the loss of daytime heating,
similar to days before.
Well to our north, a closed low will continue to meander east
across the northern CONUS, with a digging shortwave trough
swinging down into the Central Plains. This pattern shift will
break down the ridge and place North and Central Texas near the
base of the main trough by Thursday. The best source of lift (and
in turn the better rain chances) will remain to our north over the
afternoon, with diurnal heating once again being the main driver
of any isolated afternoon convection across the region. Severe
weather is unlikely, though any storm could have gusty winds and
lightning. The NBM has not been picking up any of the CAM guidance
over the last several days, and have again broad-brushed 15-20%
PoPs across the region during the afternoon to account for the
isolated potential. Otherwise, afternoon highs will be in the
upper 80s to mid 90s for another day.
Prater
&&
.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Thursday Evening Onward/
The slow-moving upper trough will continue to trek eastward
across the North and Central Plains the rest of the week with the
region remaining near the base of the trough. Disturbances moving
around the trough will keep daily rain chances in the forecast as
we head into the weekend. Best chances will be in North Texas,
with highest PoPs near and along the Red River both Friday and
Saturday. By the end of the weekend the base of the trough will
have exited to our northeast, with the region between the trough
to our east and a building ridge to our west. This will culminate
in northwest flow aloft, allowing for minute disturbances to move
across the Southern Plains and keep daily rain chances in the
forecast as we head into the new work week.
Of particular interest is the Monday-Tuesday timeframe, where
both the deterministic GFS and Euro deepen one of the
aforementioned disturbances into a low that treks across North and
Central Texas. If the low does end up moving across the region,
then rain chances would likely increase from the current 30-50%
that is in the forecast now. At this time the severe risk is
wholly uncertain due to being 6-7 days out, so we`ll need to keep
an eye on shear and instability trends as we head through the rest
of the week.
Prater
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/
Winds will remain southerly, though will veer a bit more W-SW
over the morning hours before returning to the S-SE later today.
VFR will prevail with some passing cirrus and diurnal cumulus.
There is low potential for showers and perhaps a storm or two this
afternoon within D10, and have included a period of VCSH between
21-00Z as high-res guidance is a little more in agreement with
isolated development. Any shower/storm could produce mainly gusty,
erratic winds. Potential for VCSH at ACT is a bit more uncertain,
so have not included any mention at this time. Any activity will
wane with the loss of daytime heating, and no rain chances are
expected during the night into Thursday morning.
Prater
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    74  93  73  90  72 /   0  20   0  20  20
Waco                71  92  71  92  70 /   0  20   0  20   5
Paris               69  92  68  88  67 /   0  20   5  20  30
Denton              70  93  69  90  69 /   0  20   0  20  30
McKinney            70  93  70  89  69 /   0  20   0  20  30
Dallas              75  94  73  92  73 /   0  20   0  20  20
Terrell             70  92  69  88  69 /   0  20   5  20  20
Corsicana           72  93  72  91  70 /   0  20   5  20  10
Temple              69  92  69  92  68 /   0  20   0  20   0
Mineral Wells       68  94  68  91  68 /   0  20   0  20  20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion