Denio, Nevada Weather Forecast Discussion

667
FXUS65 KLKN 211047
AFDLKN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
347 AM PDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 322 AM PDT Sun Sep 21 2025
* Today precipitation chances remain across Eastern Nevada and
  parts of Central Nevada in the morning with a 30-40% chance of
  showers. Thunderstorm chances up to 15-20% in Central and
  Northeastern Nevada. Look for partial clearing in the evening.
* Mostly sunny Monday.
* Another low pressure system expected to move across the
  southwest bringing more moisture over Central Nevada Tuesday
  afternoon. Chance of rain up to 20%.
* Widespread moisture Wednesday through Thursday afternoon with
  chances of light showers up to 20% across Central and Northern
  Nevada.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 322 AM PDT Sun Sep 21 2025
No updates are needed for the current forecast as it remains on
track.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Saturday)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Storms expected to weaken early this
morning, then return this afternoon as the system slows down from
upper ridging over the rockies. 25-35% chance for rain showers
across central and northeastern Nevada (Humboldt county expected
to be dry). The system will slowly push eastward by the evening,
keeping chances of rain showers over the eastern state border,
clearing out overnight. Monday, upper ridging moves back over
Nevada, leaving clearer skies and a brief lull in weather. Models
showing an off- cut-low forming over southern California, pushing
up more moisture from the Gulf of California. By Tuesday evening,
increasing confidence that the low pressure system will push
northward, weakening the upper ridge and bring in more moisture
into southern Nevada, extending into N. Nye County. There is
discrepancies in the models on chances for rain Tuesday night and
into Wednesday with some models showing drier air still over
Nevada with PWAT values below 0.25 in, while GFS showing more
extreme amount above 0.6 inches. The models however are showing
greater confidence on the position of the system, moving over
southern Nevada Tuesday evening through Thursday evening. Chances
for showers each day remain at or below 20% at this time, clearing
out by Thursday evening. By late week and into the weekend, the
low pressure is expected to push over the Four Corners area,
leaving a more southwesterly flow over Nevada along with drier
air. High temperatures remain relatively consistent each day with
highs in the 70s to low 80s. Overnight lows in the 40s until
Monday night, with many valley areas expected to see cooler lows
into the upper 30s. Winds will be generally light each with with
some breezy afternoon winds up to 10 mph, however greater wind
speeds from passing storms are possible.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: No changes to grids at this
time. Increasing confidence of the low pressure system from
Tropical Storm Mario, slowing down over Nevada today. Greater
confidence of the next low pressure system moving back over Nevada
by mid-week, however low confidence on amount of moisture is
present from this next system.
&&
.AVIATION...
Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will impact the
region this afternoon and early evening, with wind gusts of up to
35 mph in any thunderstorm outflows that may occur. VFR
conditions are expected at all terminals today and tonight.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon
and continue into the early to mid-evening hours. A dry and more
stable air mass sets up on Monday with W-NW winds gusting 15 to 25
mph through the afternoon and early evening. Minimum RH`s will
lower to around 15% Monday afternoon across the northern Fire
Weather Zones, and into the 15 to 25% range across central NV FW
zones. Dry and stable conditions across all zones on Tuesday, with
winds becoming easterly at 5 to 10 mph for most of the region.
&&
.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...84

NWS lkn Office Area Forecast Discussion