Deepwater, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

687
FXUS63 KEAX 091119
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
619 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and few storms expected this morning across far eastern KS
  and western MO.
- Well above normal temperatures expected for the later half of
  the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Similar to last night, IR and nighttime microphysics satellite
imagery shows ACCAS developing (as of 06-07Z) over eastern KS. A few
showers and storms were also noted on radar in eastern KS as
well with this activity. This shows up well with the 305K
isentropic plots as an area of strong ascent in eastern KS
coupled with modest moisture transport into the area.
Additionally, water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough
moving southeast out of NE into north central KS, with
convection associated with it. As of writing this (around 07Z)
the area of strong isentropic ascent should lead to an
increasing coverage of showers and a few thunderstorms in the
predawn hours in eastern KS and into adjacent areas of MO. As
the shortwave advances southeastward, the strongest ascent will
be shunted southward and eventually we`ll see subsidence as the
wave passes through later this morning, winding down
precipitation chances from north to south. Instability continue
to look weak with only a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE noted in far
eastern KS and adjacent areas of MO. Given this, the threat of
severe storms looks very low. Precipitation amounts continue to
look to be in the couple tenths of an inch to perhaps half an
inch range with little or no precipitation east of I-35 and
I-49.
Temperatures will trend above normal for the latter half of the
week. Overall, the forecast here has changed little. Upper-level
ridging builds into the middle of the country with persistent
southerly to southwesterly low-level flow. The upper ridge axis
moves right over the area late in the week and into the weekend and
given this pattern, temperatures in the 90s look likely. Dewpoints
have been consistently forecast to be in the lower 60s during the
afternoon so despite the hot air temperatures, humidity values
will be relatively low so heat index values may only be a degree
or two warmer than the air temperature during peak heating. The
hottest day looks like Saturday and we start to see some
pockets of red HeatRisk noted in the forecast area. Overall,
don`t foresee any heat headlines with these above normal
temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 619 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
A line of storms is moving southeast through northeastern KS
with an area of rain and embedded storms extending to the
northeast into northwestern MO. As this area moves to the
southeast this morning, it will weaken as it`s moving into
weaker instability and way from stronger shear. But it should
still bring some rain and storms to all terminals for a few
hours this morning. So have added some TS mention at all sites.
Precipitation moves away late this morning/early this afternoon.
Overall VFR conditions are expected, but brief periods of MVFR
to IFR visibility are possible as the storms move through.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion