D Hanis, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

822
FXUS64 KEWX 031902
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
202 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures and some low rain chances into next
  week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
A subtle increase in moisture on GOES satellite layer precipitable
water imagery is noted across the western Gulf into portions of
the Texas coast this afternoon. Some light showers are currently
developing across the coastal plains and as the edge of this
moisture moves westward, some isolated showers may develop as far
west as U.S. Highway 281. No significant rainfall amounts are
expected with this activity. Some slightly drier air moves in from
the north/northeast on Saturday and this will likely keep any rain
chances confined to right along the Texas coast. Highs today are
still on track to top out in the upper 80s to mid 90s. A slight
weakening of the low-level thermal ridge *may* allow highs to drop
a degree or two on Saturday. However, we will still be some 5 to 8
degrees above climatological normals. Low temperatures will be
mainly in the 60s with a few upper 50s in the Hill Country.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
A slight increase in moisture briefly moves back into the coastal
plains and Highway 77 corridor Sunday and may allow for a few
showers to develop in the afternoon. For now, we will keep rain
chances low over the mentioned areas, with dry conditions across
the remainder of south central Texas. We could also see enough
moisture spread back west into the I-35 corridor and Hill Country
to warrant a low chance for showers into Monday. Any rainfall
amounts will likely remain low given the isolated coverage of
convection.
As we head into the middle and late portion of next week, the
models generally favor a re-strengthening of the subtropical
ridge axis across southern Texas into the western Gulf. A weak
front may move into north Texas during the middle of the upcoming
week. There is a decent area of surface high pressure (1030mb)
across the Great Lakes region and this may be enough to eventually
get some weak north to northeast winds into south central Texas
late Wednesday. We will keep a low chance for showers and storms
in the forecast across most of south central Texas on Wednesday.
However, would like to see a stronger front and some signal of mid
and upper level support before increasing our rain chances above
20%. We do not expect any significant cooling as we head into late
next week behind the above mentioned boundary. Highs will still
remain above normal along with near to above normal lows.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
VFR flying conditions are forecast for the rest of today into the
evening and continuing into Saturday. Increased low level moisture
arriving across the local area this afternoon into Saturday is
likely to produce a scattered to isolated broken cloud ceiling deck
over most of South Central Texas for most of the period. At this
time, we are not anticipating a lower ceiling category to impact the
local area terminals. A light easterly wind flow (less than 10
knots) is forecast to prevail for the rest of today into the evening
hours. Light and variable winds are likely to take place overnight
with a prevailing easterly flow dominating during the day on
Saturday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              68  93  69  93 /  10   0   0  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  67  92  66  93 /  10   0   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     66  93  66  94 /  10   0   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            66  89  66  90 /   0   0   0  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           70  92  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        65  90  67  91 /   0   0   0  10
Hondo Muni Airport             66  92  67  92 /   0   0   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        66  92  66  93 /  10   0   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   66  92  66  93 /   0   0   0  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       69  91  70  91 /   0   0   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           70  93  70  93 /   0   0   0  10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Platt
LONG TERM....Platt
AVIATION...17

NWS EWX Office Area Forecast Discussion