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Cypress Mill, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

979
FXUS64 KEWX 222327 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 627 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The heat continues through Tuesday across all of south central Texas.

- A cold front brings temperature relief to some areas Wednesday along with rain chances into Thursday.

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.SHORT TERM (THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)... A stable pattern regarding the large-scale flow remains intact through Tuesday with the mid and upper level subtropical high over central and northern Mexico remaining the dominant weather feature. Little change in the air mass will result in continued above normal high and low temperatures for the first couple days of the Fall season. The NBM guidance has been a little low with regards to temperatures, so we will nudge the NBM values upward to account for this trend. The heat combined with continued southerly flow in the lower levels may push afternoon heat index values close to 108 degrees in the coastal plains on Tuesday.

We also expect to see a few showers and storms today from the coastal plains to near the I-35 corridor. The last few runs of the HRRR are highlighting a small area (Burnet, Blanco & Kendall counties) over the Hill Country for some possible showers and storms today. We have updated the forecast to add a low chance for some afternoon convection today. For Tuesday, we will keep rain chances confined to near the coastal plains given any lift will be limited to the sea breeze.

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.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... An increase in mid and upper level troughing across the southern plains states will bring a change to our weather pattern beginning Wednesday. A cold front will accompany the above mentioned weather system, but some timing differences are noted among the global and hi-res models. Will tend to side with the faster southward movement of the front on Wednesday, with some relief from the hot temperatures in store from the southern Edwards Plateau eastward into the Hill Country and I-35 corridor from Austin northward. Farther south, the heat will likely continue for one more day as highs top out in the mid to upper 90s along and south of U.S. Highway 90.

While our region will be on the southern edge of where the stronger forcing for ascent will reside, we do expect to see a good chance for rain across south central Texas as the front makes steady southward progress during the daytime hours on Wednesday. A few strong storms will be possible, especially during the afternoon hours, generally along and south of a Del Rio to San Marcos to Giddings line. The flow aloft will be fairly weak across south central Texas, so any concerns for strong storms will likely be relegated to the peak heating hours as the front drops southward. Given little shear, the main severe weather concern would be for locally strong wind gusts. We will also see some enhanced moisture levels along and just behind the boundary, so some locally heavy rainfall will be possible for areas generally along and south of a Pearsall to Hondo to Austin line. At this time, it does not look like a widespread, heavy rain event. However, some pockets of heavy rain can be expected given the front, enhanced moisture and slow-moving storms.

Drier and cooler air in the lower levels will filter in behind the boundary on Thursday and this will bring a decreasing chance of rain from north to south as the day progresses. All areas can finally expect a break from the heat on Thursday as highs generally top out in the 80s under partly to mostly cloudy skies.

Dry weather develops behind the front on Friday into Saturday as mid and upper level ridging briefly develops over the region. We will keep a low chance for showers in the forecast across the southern Edwards Plateau Saturday afternoon as southwesterly flow aloft begins to develop to our west. Through the remainder of the forecast, the current round of GFS and ECMWF ensemble guidance both show an upper low developing over the desert southwest or southern California. Moisture levels associated with this pattern appear to remain higher out west along the Rio Grande, so we will keep some low rain chances in the forecast for this area as we head into early next week. High temperatures are expected to stay at or just above normal, while overnight lows will likely stay below normal for most areas, except out west along the Rio Grande.

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.AVIATION (00Z TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... VFR conditions are forecast for this evening through 08Z Tuesday. By 09Z Tuesday, MVFR cigs are forecast to develop across the I-35 sites and stay through at least 15Z. By 16Z or shortly after, VFR cigs return and remain through the evening hours. A southeast wind flow of 10 knots or less is forecast to prevail for most times with occasional gusts up to 18 knots in the afternoon and early evening hours.

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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 76 100 76 93 / 20 10 20 70 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 75 99 76 93 / 20 10 20 70 New Braunfels Muni Airport 74 99 75 95 / 20 0 10 70 Burnet Muni Airport 74 95 74 85 / 20 0 30 70 Del Rio Intl Airport 78 99 78 95 / 0 0 10 50 Georgetown Muni Airport 75 98 75 89 / 20 0 30 70 Hondo Muni Airport 74 98 74 95 / 0 0 10 60 San Marcos Muni Airport 74 99 74 95 / 20 10 10 70 La Grange - Fayette Regional 74 96 75 93 / 20 20 10 80 San Antonio Intl Airport 76 99 77 95 / 10 0 10 60 Stinson Muni Airport 77 101 77 98 / 10 0 10 60

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.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None.

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SHORT TERM...76 LONG TERM...17 AVIATION...17

NWS EWX Office Area Forecast Discussion

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