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Cuthbert, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

667
FXUS62 KTAE 220928
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 528 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 120 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025

A broad upper level trough over the northern Gulf will weaken through the afternoon and into tonight while surface high pressure keeps easterly flow in place across the area. Preciptable waters should range from 1.3 to 1.8 inches across the area with the highest deep-layer moisture generally across the eastern portions of the forecast area across the southeast Big Bend and across some portions of the Panhandle. The lower range of these PWATs will generally be across southeast Alabama and into portions of southwest Georgia.

With the trough over the region and favorable ascent and seabreeze- convergence across the southeast Florida Big Bend, the greatest rain chances (around 20-30%) will be east and south of a Tallahassee Tifton line this afternoon, but some spotty showers can`t be ruled out across the Panhandle as well along the seabreeze. Activity will wane by the early evening and sunset across the area with afternoon highs around the low 90s cooling off into the upper 60s for Monday night.

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.SHORT AND LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 120 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025

As upper level flow becomes westerly ahead of our next system, low- level flow will veer from the east to southeast and then south by Thursday. This will bring a slow moistening and warming trend to the area. While mostly dry conditions are expected, a few isolated showers and storms are possible Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon, especially across our Florida Big Bend and southern-Georgia counties where weak seabreeze convergence and diffluent flow aloft will be well-positioned.

For Thursday and Friday a large CONUS trough will settle into the southeast US and slowly translate through the forecast area. This trough should bring a weak cold front through the area. For much of the region, this front will bring the first widespread chance of rainfall to the forecast area that we`ve seen in around 3 weeks. While rainfall chances appear to remain high, rainfall amounts on the other hand are not likely to be significant enough to be drought-busting. Across the low end of possibilities for rainfall (around 90% chance of exceeding), most areas should get around 0.25 inches of rain, but for the higher end possibilities (around 10% chance of exceeding), these amounts are only around 1.5-2.0 inches. While many locations won`t see those 1.5-2.0 inch totals, even these amounts are not enough to erase weeks of rainfall deficits. Even the most likely amounts, around 0.5 to 0.75 inches, will likely only put a small dent in the developing drought across the area.

After the front moves through, drier and slightly cooler conditions are likely to return to the forecast area for the weekend, but some uncertainty in the broader upper level pattern does give lower confidence to the forecast, especially if the upper level trough begins to cutoff across the deep south like some solutions paint.

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.AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 527 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025

Brief MVFR conditions are still possible at VLD through 13z with VFR later in the morning as the low clouds and patchy fog dissipate. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period with light easterly winds. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across the Florida panhandle, big bend, and adjacent southern Georgia including VLD, but the probabilities appear too low to include an explicit mention in the TAFs at this time.

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.MARINE... Issued at 120 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025

Easterly winds continue one more day into Tuesday but they will begin to lighten and turn southerly through the week ahead of our next system later this week. Given easterly flow regime into Tuesday, a brief moderate easterly surges is possible tonight as the east coast seabreeze makes it`s way into the Apalachee Bay. Seas will remain around 1 to 2 feet. Increasing chances for scattered showers and storms is likely late in the week. Despite the approaching front later this week, winds and seas should likely remain below cautionary levels through the period.

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.FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 120 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025

Mostly dry conditions will continue through Wednesday across the area with afternoon relative humidities around 35 to 40%. Easterly winds will be light and turn southerly through the week as moisture slowly increases. Isolated showers and some thunderstorms are possible each afternoon, but most of the rain chance will hold off until Thursday and Friday as our next system moves through. While rain chances will be high, and the probabilities for a wetting rain remain high as well, the chance for more significant rainfall totals above 1.0" still remain quite low and only around 5 to 10%. While the rain and cloud cover should lower fire concerns later this week, fire weather concerns are still likely to remain elevated outside Thursday and Friday`s frontal system given drought conditions in place and infrequent nature of the rainfall producing systems.

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.HYDROLOGY... Issued at 120 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025

Mostly dry conditions should prevail through the period with drought conditions likely to remain in place and potentially get worse in locations that don`t receive significant rainfall from our next system on Thursday and Friday. This next system is not likely to bring flooding concerns, but riverine issues are not expected. Rainfall totals around 0.5 to 1.0 inches are possible.

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.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 92 71 93 71 / 20 0 10 0 Panama City 91 72 90 73 / 20 0 10 0 Dothan 93 68 94 69 / 10 0 0 0 Albany 93 69 94 70 / 10 0 0 0 Valdosta 91 70 93 70 / 20 10 10 0 Cross City 92 70 93 71 / 20 10 20 10 Apalachicola 85 73 86 73 / 10 0 10 0

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.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. &&

$$

NEAR TERM...Dobbs SHORT TERM...Dobbs LONG TERM....Dobbs AVIATION...DVD MARINE...Dobbs FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs HYDROLOGY...Dobbs

NWS TAE Office Area Forecast Discussion

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