Custer, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

910
FXUS63 KLBF 281122
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
622 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures remain above average this week, with highs in
  the 80s expected each day.
- Breezy conditions are expected through Tuesday, with strong
  southerly winds gusting up to 30 mph. Gusty winds are possible
  again on Wednesday.
- Little to no precipitation is expected this week, despite a
  few weak disturbances. Better precipitation chances return
  next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
An upper level low is observed over western Arizona this morning,
with a trough across the Desert Southwest. This brings southerly
flow aloft across western Nebraska, amplifying an upper level ridge
over the western United States. At the surface, high pressure
remains across the region this morning. By the afternoon, a low
pressure system is expected to develop along the Front Range, and
given the upper level moisture advection, cloud cover is expected to
develop. However, fairly dry lower levels should prohibit any
precipitation chances this afternoon and evening.
The nearby low pressure center, as well as strong mixing in the
lower boundary layer, will allow for some very breezy conditions
today and tomorrow. Southerly winds of 15 to 20 mph are expected,
gusting to 30 mph throughout the afternoon. Given the very similar
pattern on Monday, expect an almost identical forecast on Monday,
with warm temperatures, breezy southerly winds, and no
precipitation.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Upper level ridging continues on Tuesday, as a trough begins to
track over the West Coast. While this will help shift the upper
level ridge to the east, the southwesterly flow aloft will keep the
jet stream well north of the region. The trough will continue to
deepen and track across the western United States, remaining just
west of the region by Saturday.
With this upper level pattern, temperatures are expected to remain
warmer than average through this week, with daily highs in the 80s.
For reference, our normal highs this time of year are typically in
the lower 70s. Forecast soundings continue to indicate strong mixing
potential on Tuesday, which will keep gusty southerly winds across
the region. By Wednesday, upper level winds are expected to be
slightly decreased, so the gust potential on Wednesday does seem to
be trending down.
The upper level flow will also support decent moisture advection
across the region, however, forecast soundings continue to suggest
dry lower layers. Ensemble forecasts remain fairly dry as well,
generally less than a 20 percent chance of measureable precipitation
throughout the week. The latest NBM forecast remains dry as well,
and given the lack of upper level support and dry low layers, will
continue to stick with the NBM probabilities in the extended
forecast. By the weekend, a stronger upper level trough tracks into
the region, bringing our next best chances for precipitation across
the region. Ensembles are highlighting around a 20 to 40 percent
chance of measureable precipitation next weekend, but will continue
to monitor forecast trends throughout the week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 622 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north
central Nebraska today and tonight. Skies will start out clear
today, but high cloud cover will move in from the west this
afternoon and tonight. The main aviation concern today will be the
strong, gusty southerly winds. Gusts this afternoon may reach up to
30 knots at times, especially across portions of northern Nebraska,
including the KVTN terminal. Tonight, as the low level inversion
develops, a strong low level jet will set up LLWS concerns across
most of southwest Nebraska into north central Nebraska, with impacts
expected at KLBF. Some question remains on where the core of the LLJ
sets up overnight, with current guidance keeping the core just east
of KVTN. Will continue to monitor this development on the following
TAF cycles, as KVTN may see LLWS added for the overnight period.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Richie

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion