Custer, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

950
FXUS63 KLBF 231136
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
636 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Potential for heavy rainfall across southwest Nebraska today,
  particularly this morning.
- Dry and mild/warm, conditions are expected Wednesday and right
  though the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 321 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
The center of a potent mid-level circulation is currently located
across northwest Colorado early this morning. Large scale lift has
spread across the central plains downstream of this feature. As a
result, showers and thunderstorms are scattered about much of South
Dakota, Nebraska and Kansas. There continues to be plenty of
moisture across the area, with PWATS running 120%+ across much of
the region. Fortunately, storms have been moving quickly enough that
no flooding concerns have been seen so far.
As the mid-level circulation continues to move eastward across
northern Colorado toward the area, NAM/HRRR have been consistent in
developing a more concentrated band of potential heavy
showers/thunder toward sunrise and after across portions of
southwest Nebraska. The last several runs of the HRRR have been
moving this band slightly north and south, but has been consistently
indicating that 2+" of rainfall is possible within this band. It
appears that as convection develops it will begin to train in an
east to west fashion on the northern side of the mid-level
circulation as it redevelops from northern Colorado into northwest
Kansas. Some runs have had this band near the I-80 corridor across
Lincoln county. Again, have seen fluctuations north and south with
this band, and will be monitoring radar closely for signs of
development and placement. Concerned that there could be some
flooding issues within the band as it may persist for several hours.
Rain will continue into this afternoon, especially for areas near
ans south of I-80. Still could be some locally heavy rainfall into
this afternoon...as a good amount of moisture wraps back westward
across southwest Nebraska on the northern side of the circulation.
System gradually begins to fill as it moves southeastward across
Kansas tonight. Any lingering showers across far southwest Nebraska
should end. Skies will gradually clear from the north overnight.
Could see some patchy fog, but not seeing a real strong signal for
that. Probably due to the light north to northwest low-level flow
that should continue through the night around 5 mph or so.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 321 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
The system be well east of the area by Wednesday afternoon. Drier
northerly flow aloft will be in place across our area behind the
system. As we head into Thursday and Friday, shortwave ridging aloft
will build across the area ahead of an approaching quick moving
shortwave that crosses the area Friday. Looks to be a dry cold
frontal passage with the system as it quickly moves across the
northern plains. Highs in the lower to mid 80s Friday will cool back
to the mid 70s behind the front Saturday. Ridging aloft then builds
across the area Sunday into the first of next week. All in all looks
to be nice fall like weather - but a bit on the warmer side.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 629 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Showers and thunderstorms will tend to focus across southwest
Nebraska after sunrise. MVFR is possible for areas along and
south of I-80 through today with showers likely lingering south
of I-80 into the afternoon hours. Winds will be north-
northeast at 10-20 kts decreasing to light north to northwest
tonight.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Taylor

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion