Cudahy, Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

603
FXUS63 KMKX 202019
AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
319 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms
  expected to move northeastward across southern WI late this
  afternoon/evening. Cannot rule out localized pockets of
  ponding/minor flooding over low- lying areas where storms
  continuously move over the same area through this evening.
- Additional shower chances (20-40%) Sunday into Monday.
- Mild temps Sunday with near normal temps into the start of
  the work week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued 317 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Tonight through Sunday night:
Starting to see the scattered showers and thunderstorms
redevelop this afternoon along the axis of highest instability
(SBCAPE 1000- 2000J/kg) ahead of the upper-level low. This
activity will gradually work its way across the eastern half of
the CWA through the evening. Could see more widespread
development blossom as the frontal boundary lifting
northeastward interacts with a lake breeze. Accompanying any
showers and thunderstorm would be moderate to heavy rainfall
along with lightning. While effective shear remains less than 25
knots, expect more pulse/multicell type storms with this
activity. Given PWATs above 1 inch and slow movement of this
convection, cannot rule out localized ponding/minor flooding
potential especially if storms move over the same area for
period of time. Also with low-level lapse rates between 7-8C/km
and pulse type nature, could see a few weak downburst capable of
producing +40 mph wind gusts at times. Much of this activity is
progged to linger into the start of the evening, but gradually
diminish as we loose daytime/peak heating. But some showers may
linger overnight similar to previous night, but just further
east. However, the upper-level trough lifts north overnight and
mostly dry conditions expected into Sunday morning.
Then shower and storm chances return Sunday late morning into
the afternoon as another upper-level shortwave trough swings
down across WI. Given the additional rain chances and lingering
cloud cover expect temps to be on the cooler side with highs on
Sunday in the 70s.
Wagner
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued 317 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Monday through Saturday:
The upper-level looks to slow down and potentially even cutoff
from the upper-level sitting over the Upper Great Lakes into the
start of the work week. Thus, will see rain chances through at
least Monday. May see enough drier air from a high pressure
working across Canada sneak down for Tuesday bring a brief
reprieve from rain chances. However, mid-range models generally
agree on another trough to dig across the Plains and lift into
the Midwest by midweek. This system looks to bring a surface
south of WI, placing our neck of the woods on the north/cool
side of this system. So may see additional shower chances return
to part of the area midweek onward. Otherwise, temps return to
near normal Monday through the end of the week with highs in the
lower 70s and lows in the 50s.
Wagner
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued 317 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Scattered showers and thunderstorm continue to develop this
afternoon and will persist into the evening. Better storm
chances will be for the eastern terminal closer to Lake
Michigan, but MSN and JVL may still see a brief shower/storm
through the early evening. Accompanying any shower and storm to
impact southern WI terminal will be moderate to heavy rainfall,
lightning along with brief drop in visibility and lower
ceilings to around of below MVFR levels. Expecting this round of
activity to gradually spread east and weaken overnight, but
still cannot rule out a few lingering showers into Sunday
morning. Additional shower chances will return, again for
eastern terminals (SBM, UES, MKE, and ENW) later Sunday morning
into the afternoon. However, confidence in this activity is
lower, thus will maintain mostly PROB30 for this round of
activity as the upper- level low gradually slides through.
Wagner
&&
.MARINE...
Issued 317 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Lake Michigan continues to see lighter southeasterly winds across
the southern two-thirds of the lake this evening on the backside of
high pressure slowly departing Quebec. However, stronger winds
20-30kt linger across far northern third of the lake through the
evening. Will see lighter more south-southwesterly winds
develop into Sunday as a slow moving upper-level low works its
way across the region through the start of the work week
followed by high pressure through Tuesday. Then by midweek
expecting low pressure to lift in from the central Plains and
skirt south of Lake Michigan bringing stronger winds and a more
easterly wind shift.
Wagner
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ052-WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071 until 4
     PM Saturday.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 4 PM
     Saturday.
&&
$$
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NWS MKX Office Area Forecast Discussion