Cuba, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

225
FXUS63 KTOP 251925
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
225 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy and shallow morning fog, otherwise dry and quiet
  weather is expected through the next week with temperatures
  slightly above average.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Upper air pattern continues to trend towards an Omega block with the
central US under the influence of ridging over the Rockies, which
sets up quiet and warm weather in the central US through the next
week. Surface high pressure also dominates the area, and this should
result in a similar set up as this morning for patchy ground fog
tomorrow morning. Td depressions look to be only around 1-2 degrees
with clear skies and calm winds to provide good radiational cooling.
Forecast soundings show that any low-level moisture looks shallow,
and would expect this to be confined to low-lying areas and areas
near water, much like this morning.
The upper ridge keeps its hold on the region through this weekend.
While the blocking pattern does look to break down early next week,
any forcing from the trough upstream looks to remain to our west
through mid-week. A persistence forecast would do fairly well
through this forecast period with little change in air mass, keeping
high temperatures in the 80s and lows in the 50s to around 60. A
small range in temperatures in the ensembles further indicates high
confidence in the forecast through the next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Have seen diurnal cu develop on satellite, so expect that to
dissipate with sunset. Otherwise, light and variable winds
likely turn calm overnight. This may allow shallow ground fog to
develop before sunrise, but confidence in impacts to terminals
and timing of any vis reductions are too low for inclusion at
this time. VFR outside of fog formation.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Picha

NWS TOP Office Area Forecast Discussion