Craintown, Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

949
FXUS63 KJKL 191955
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
355 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Expect mainly dry and warm weather to continue through
  Saturday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase
  Sunday and become more numerous for the first half of next week.
- Widespread, beneficial rainfall is possible next week, which
  would help to ease ongoing dry conditions across much of eastern
  Kentucky.
- There is a possibility for strong thunderstorms on Thursday,
  but significant uncertainty remains with the parent storm
  system`s track and strength.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 223 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2025
Aloft, a negatively-tilted trough over the Missouri Valley will
weaken/dampen as it moves east-northeast to the Ohio Valley tonight
into Saturday, and then to the Lower Great Lakes and northern Mid-
Atlantic region Sunday morning. Another disturbance then approaches
the Mid-Mississippi Valley and Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys Sunday
morning.
North to northeasterly surface flow this afternoon will transition
to a weak warm advection regime later tonight into Saturday,
ushering in increased low-level moisture and instability by Saturday
afternoon. The weakening disturbance moving across the Ohio Valley
and increased low-level moisture and instability will result in
isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, with highest
PoPs along the higher terrain near/along the Virginia border. Most
locations will remain dry but with increased cumulus development
resulting in some increasing in shading and thus slightly lower
high temperatures compared to this afternoon.
Models suggest a milder night Saturday night than for tonight given
a likely low-level jet developing overnight ahead of the next
approaching disturbance to the west. Nevertheless, while most
locations will likely only fall into the 60s Saturday night, would
expect enough clearing for lows in the mid to upper 50s in the
sheltered valleys, particularly east of the escarpment.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 325 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2025
The forecast period begins Sunday morning with a positively-
tilted 500 mb trough extending from Northern Ontario into the
Central Plains. Ridging is departing via the Mid-Atlantic and New
England as multiple disturbances eject from the Southern/Central
Plains toward the Ohio Valley. One of those disturbances will be
lifting into the Lower Ohio Valley Sunday morning, accompanied by
strong low-level warm air and moisture advection. The strongest
modeled forcing initially favors the western half of the forecast
area, where isolated showers and thunderstorms could be ongoing at
the start of the forecast period.
Model agreement is good for the first few days of the long-term
before spread becomes significant during the second half of the
forecast period. At this point, focus is on any notable large-
scale synoptic pattern agreement that is favored by ensembles such
as the 100-member LREF. An analysis of the latest data favors a
broadening 500H trough over the Central and into the northern
CONUS on Monday as the parent upper-level trough dampens and pulls
away to the northeast. Additional energy traverses the Rockies
and begins digging into the large-scale trough by Tuesday.
A majority (~68%) of the 00z LREF guidance showed that energy
diving into the Central Plains on Tuesday, though there were
substantial differences in eastward progression. At least half of
the 100-LREF members then favor that energy leading to the
formation of a closed low near or over Missouri on Wednesday.
Other solutions, however, favor a more subtle open wave. An even
larger number of members have that closed low feature on Thursday
in the vicinity of the mid-Mississippi Valley, though a
significant minority ~25% still favor a more progressive open
trough. In the favored majority solution, the upper low generally
drifts into the lower Ohio Valley region on Friday but could begin
to fill and/or begin the transition to an open wave as it
meanders closer to the stronger westerlies over southern Canada.
The synoptic-scale setup favors a surge of moisture moving in Sunday
into Monday as the trough initially to our northwest dampens and
pulls away. While the stronger upper-level forcing remains to the
north, PWATs are forecast to rise into the 1.3 to 1.6-inch range.
This renewed moisture, combined with surface heating and a
passing upper-level disturbance, will support modest instability
(>500 J/kg) on Sunday; however, weak shear will limit convective
vigor. That moisture lingers through mid-week with additional
passing weak perturbations aloft. The resulting diurnally-
modulated convection will maintain likely (40-60%) rain chances
for Monday through Wednesday. More substantial forcing is likely
to attend the upper low later in the week. Of particular interest,
at this point, is Thursday, which depending upon the track of the
upper low could bring a combination of shear and instability more
favorable for organized strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms as
eastern Kentucky potentially ends up under a strong warm conveyor
belt jet ahead of the systems cold front. While the associated
surface low is still favored to remain north of the Ohio River, a
strong cold front wrapping clockwise around the increasingly
vertically stacked low would then be favored to bring cooler and
perhaps continued showery weather to eastern Kentucky by Friday.
With abnormally dry to drought conditions ongoing across the
Commonwealth, the chances of a much-needed wetting rainfall appear
increasingly likely. The probability of at least 1 inch of
rainfall through Friday ranges from 50% in the far east to nearly
70% west of the Pottsville Escarpment.
In terms of sensible weather, Sunday will be another very warm
day with a mix of sun and clouds and highs in the mid-80s. A
chance of showers and thunderstorms exists, especially over
western portions of the area, though isolated activity is possible
anywhere. Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances will continue
each day from Monday through Wednesday. High temperatures will
gradually fall to around 80F by Wednesday. With more widespread
rain chances on Thursday and possibly Friday, forecast high
temperatures will fall further into the 70s. Nighttime low
temperatures remain in the mid 50s to mid 60s through Wednesday
night before settling back mainly into the 50s late in the week.
Fog is likely in the favored valleys each night and could be more
extensive in locations that receive substantial rainfall.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2025
VFR conditions will prevail along with light winds through the TAF
period, though valley fog will bring localized VLIFR conditions
to the river valleys beginning after ~03z and lasting until around
~13z, and as late as 14z in the Upper Cumberland Valley, before
burning off.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...CMC

NWS JKL Office Area Forecast Discussion