Crabb, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

175
FXUS64 KHGX 250518
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1218 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
- A modest cold front is making its way towards the Gulf,
  continuing scattered to numerous showers and storms for coastal
  areas tonight. Some of these storms may have some gusty, but
  sub-severe, winds and briefly heavy rain.
- Rain chances at the coast will gradually wind down through the
  morning, before wrapping up entirely by mid-afternoon.
- Drier air and slightly cooler temperatures around or slightly
  above seasonal averages prevail into the end of the week behind
  the front.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Showers and thunderstorms remain active right on the Gulf coast
tonight, while conditions have become quite fair farther inland,
presaging the week ahead of us.
But first...we`ve gotta get through this front thing. Based on
convection and winds, the surface boundary is probably more or
less coincident with the ongoing convection. It may be slightly
farther inland given the relative mess of light winds in the wake
of the ongoing storms as the more defined wind shift seems likely
to be the leading edge of the convective outflow. Which...you
could probably argue is more or less the front now anyway.
Regardless, it shouldn`t matter by dawn, as the surface front will
be offshore.
What we may need to watch for in the late night and morning hours
will be the frontal surface aloft. As it continues to plow its
way into a deep, moist airmass, it should be able to generate
another round of slightly elevated convection. I`m not too
terribly concerned about any storms here, as winds should have a
hard time drilling down to the surface, and more limited
instability should tamp down the rain rates some. Could still make
for an unscheduled alarm clock or a wet commute for some on the
immediate coast. This should largely focus on the area adjacent to
the Gulf itself, but depending on when things decide to kick off
again, I`ve pulled the "chance" (25-54 percent, and really much
closer to that 25 end) up to be roughly coastward of I-10.
Everything should push off through the morning, though an isolated
shower or two may try to hang on into the early afternoon...to
play it safe, let`s say everything is wrapped up by mid-afternoon,
but could very well be earlier than that. After that, we`re
looking at a whole lot of fair weather. Some coastal showers may
try to creep back into the picture towards mid-week, but the
weekend and early week will largely be about determining how much
the post-frontal airmass can cool/dry things down!
And looking at that, it will be much more effective at drying
things out than cooling things down. So, if nothing else, we
should at least be able to shed the full-summer humidity that`s
stubbornly be with us of late. This should be most helpful in
letting overnight lows finally fall down to around their late
September average. During the day, the drier air may be a bit less
helpful. We`re losing solar angle pretty solidly now that we`re
past the equinox, but there`s still enough that full sun and the
more efficient heating of drier air will help us keep from getting
too cool during the day. Fortunately, the lower morning starts
will help us out some, and so I`ve got highs for most locations
still around or just a little above seasonal averages. It`s not
much of a taste of fall, but it`s a step in that direction. One
very notable exception? Keep your eye on Galveston - in the
shoulders of summer, they love to set record highs both just
before and/or just after a "cold" front passes if they don`t get
enough rain to chop temps down. This is because we get offshore
flow from the mainland over Scholes Field, and modestly cooler
continental air will still be warmer than the highly constrained
Gulf airmass. Since Galveston rarely has a lot of degrees between
average and record, that little boost can frequently be enough to
snag us a record high for the day. We tied the daily record
Wednesday, and who knows, maybe Thursday will be another crack at
it!
As far as just how hot we might see the days getting next week,
one thing that does catch my eye next week in the ensemble
situational awareness tables is the 500 mb heights hanging out
around the 90th percentile. It fortunately doesn`t reflect in 850
temps yet, but something to keep an eye out for. In a more
sensible way, we can look at the odds of seeing highs reach 90
degrees in the area. If we take NBM probabilities as reflective of
reality (which...ehhhhhhh.....but is probably more meaningful for
temps than other things), the odds of cracking 90 are less than
50 percent for all but isolated hot spots west of the metro. By
Wednesday, we`re looking at pretty widespread 50 percent chances
across the area, and some 90 percent contours emerging out west.
So, as next week wears on, we can probably expect to see lower 90s
back in the picture at least sporadically west of the metro, and
potentially even more widespread than that!
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
All sites at VFR. Ongoing TSRA with minimal impacts to terminals,
expected to continue over the next couple of hours. Northern
terminals should remain VFR through the period. IAH and southern
terminals may experience another round of SHRA/TSRA overnight as
elevated front moves through. Winds will be out of the NW through
the period and light.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
A weak cold front will make its way over the coastal waters
tonight. Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are
ongoing and can be expected to persist through tomorrow. Locally
higher winds and seas can be expected in and around thunderstorms,
and the very strongest of the storms will be capable of producing
winds over 35 knots, though most storms` winds will be lower.
Winds become more northerly in the front`s wake on Thursday and
Friday, and may be gusty at times. There may be a need for small
craft to exercise caution on the Gulf waters.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  69  88  63  89 /  10   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  74  89  68  89 /  40  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  76  87  75  86 /  70  30  10   0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Luchs
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Luchs

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion