Council Blfs, Iowa Weather Forecast Discussion

816
FXUS63 KOAX 251917
AFDOAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
217 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy smoke may result in some hazy skies across the region
  today.
- Expect a dry pattern through the next week, with temperatures
  mostly in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Pretty quiet across the region today with upper level troughing to
our east now and upper level ridging building in. There was a little
smoke lingering in the area, but we still had plenty of sunshine
with temperatures in the lower 80s as of 2 PM. Light winds and
clear skies tonight could lead to some fog development with
guidance suggesting river valleys would be most likely to see
anything. However, model soundings show winds aloft should be
strong enough to keep it pretty patchy if it does develop.
The dry and mild weather looks to persist through the next 7 days as
we remain under or on the western periphery of ridging most of the
period. As a result, generally expect highs in the upper 70s to mid
80s and lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. We do have a shortwave
trough ripple through the area Friday night into Saturday with a
surface cold front passing, but guidance is in good agreement it
will be a dry passage and temperatures won`t be impacted a ton
(highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s Saturday, lows in the mid 40s to
mid 50s Sunday morning). About the only precip chances through next
Thursday appear to be Monday night into Tuesday as northeast NE
could get clipped by a shortwave trough pushing northeast through
the flow, but most guidance suggests it`ll stay to our west and be
pretty light if it does actually develop. Instead, we`ll likely have
to wait until sometime Friday/next weekend for higher precip chances
when guidance is in reasonably good agreement a stronger shortwave
trough and surface cold front slide through the area, though still
lots of differences in exact timing.
Otherwise, the only notable weather concerns maybe worth
keeping an eye on are: 1) fire weather concerns as we continue
to dry out, but no day in the next 7 looks particularly
dry/windy and 2) early morning fog potential at times given the
ridging and likely clear skies and light winds, but confidence
in that more than a day or so out is pretty low.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
VFR conditions favored through the period with some passing
clouds around 4000-6000 ft this afternoon. Winds will remain
light and westerly to northwesterly this afternoon before
becoming more southerly to southwesterly this evening. Some
signs we could see fog development into Friday morning (10-20%
chance), especially in river valley areas (including OMA), but
winds aloft currently look strong enough to keep it pretty
patchy.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion