Correll, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

886
FXUS63 KABR 212334
AFDABR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
634 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A 20-30% chance for thunderstorms late this afternoon/early this
  evening over portions of Deuel/Hamlin counties. Cannot rule out
  potential for a strong storm producing small hail.
- There is a 15-20% chance for mainly showers Monday evening over
  south central SD, including a 15% chance of a tenth of an inch
  or more of precipitation.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Storms have all been south of Brooking County. Focus moving
forward is fog chances overnight. This is already in the forecast
so future updates will expound on density and locations impacted.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 117 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
At 1 PM CDT, skies are sunny and temperatures are warming into the
70s on light and variable winds. Weak surface high pressure is over
the CWA, with a lee-of-the-Black-Hills surface trof extending out
across southeast South Dakota as a sort of pseudo warm front.
Between now and about 7 PM CDT, there could be a shower or two
(maybe even a thunderstorm) that forms within the WAA zone of this
surface boundary and lifts east-northeast into Hamlin/Deuel
Counties. ~500-1000J/kg of CAPE and ~25-30kts of deep layer shear
may contribute to a couple of updrafts capable of supporting small
hail. Not seeing any note-worthy values showing up in low-level
parameters that would suggest a tornado threat exists over this CWA
during daylight hours over this CWA. With the surface-1km wind
backing some this afternoon/evening, hodographs do develop some nice
turning in the low levels down between Watertown and Brookings. But,
they are small curved hodographs, not the big looping low level
hodographs that typically accompany a tornado threat.
After the available forcing/lift this afternoon/evening goes away,
attention turns to the energy (currently) over the Pac NW as it
moves down across the inner-mountain-west and out onto the central
plains Monday/Monday night. PoPs over the southwestern zones have
dwindled to 15-20% Monday night.
Temperatures throughout the short term forecast period should
running around to perhaps a few degrees above normal.
It`s going to take a while for the axis of upper level ridging to
get over the CWA, as the pattern aloft over the lower 48 states will
continue to showcase a split flow/blocky pattern where large-scale
ridges and trofs will be slow to move. But, eventually, a broad and
semi-flat upper level ridge will establish over the northern half of
the contiguous U.S. and Canada for the second half of the week into
this next weekend.
The forecast underneath rising heights aloft is a dry forecast for
now, with very little spread (25th/75th percentile range generally
less than 5 degrees) in the ensemble temperature guidance. This
leads to pretty high confidence in high temperatures in the 70s to
low 80s and low temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s throughout
the CWA through Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
Generally expecting VFR conditions outside of KATY which has the
highest probability of seeing MVFR/IFR VISBY with fog, and
possibly some low CIGS in the morning. Less confident for fog at
KABR. No other hazards of note.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...07

NWS ABR Office Area Forecast Discussion