Corpus Christi Army Depot, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

944
FXUS64 KCRP 011104
AFDCRP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
604 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 556 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
- Moderate to high risk of rip currents with minor coastal
  flooding becoming increasingly likely this upcoming weekend.
- Low to medium (20-40%) chance for daytime showers & storms
  Friday into early next week, with best chances near the coast.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
An elongated surface high pressure originating form eastern Canada
remains stretched over South Texas with a weak surface low over the
Bay of Campeche assisting in keeping winds light and variable.
Currently, moisture is below normal with PWATs near the 25th
percentile ranging from 1.0-1.25". Rain-free conditions will
dominate across the region through Thursday night before a mid to
upper level trough/low over the northern Gulf Coast tries to shove
its way into the eastern periphery of a mid-level ridge over
northern Mexico into the southern Great Plains. This mid-level
low/trough will near the Texas Coast, increasing rain chances
beginning Friday and continuing into early next week as PWAT values
near normal (~1.5"). Forecast remains generally unchanged from
yesterday with medium to high rain chances over the open waters, and
a low (20-40%) chance over the Coastal Plains, mainly along the
afternoon seabreeze.
Hazardous beach conditions this upcoming weekend is our main
concern. Moderate northeasterly flow will enhance the Ekman
transport mechanism; in combination with near astronomical high tide
of a full moon phase and swell periods around 8 seconds, minor
coastal flooding is becoming increasingly likely along with a
moderate to high risk of rip currents. However, there is quite the
spread in ensemble uncertainty from 1.6-2.0 ft MSL at Aransas Pass
according to P-ETSS. Please use caution if entering the waters this
weekend, remember if caught in a rip current, "Wave, Yell, Swim
Parallel."
High temperatures will generally range from the mid 80s to the mid
90s daily with low temperatures from the upper 60s to mid 70s,
gradually increasing into the weekend along with dewpoints.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 556 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. Winds will
generally be light and variable, with southeasterly wind gusts to
around 15 knots possible for CRP this afternoon from 17Z-21Z. Have
included this in a TEMPO.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Winds will be predominately light to gentle (BF 2-3) and
directionally variable with 2-3 ft seas through Thursday night. By
Friday, these winds increase to more moderate to fresh (BF 4-5)
strength out of the east-northeast with seas increasing to 3-5 ft.
This pattern continues through the weekend with winds decreasing
slightly on Monday to become gentle to moderate out of the east-
southeast with persistent seas around 3 ft. Rain chances return
Thursday night, increasing to moderate to high rain chances of 60-
90% Friday, then decreasing to 40-60% chances Saturday into early
next week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Forecast afternoon minimum relative humidity will generally range
from 25-35% across the Inland Coastal Plains and Brush Country
through Friday. Moisture increases Saturday into early next week
with minimum relative humidity above 30%. While the drier airmass is
in place and Energy Release Components ranges from 50th-90th
percentile, weak surface and 20 ft winds will limit the fire risk,
but will be worthy of monitoring regardless. Slightly above normal
temperatures will continue with low to medium (20-40%) shower and
thunderstorm chances returning Friday and continuing into early next
week, mainly along the afternoon seabreeze.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    93  71  92  71 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          95  68  95  67 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            96  71  98  71 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             96  67  95  68 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          91  73  91  74 /   0   0   0  10
Cotulla           96  69  98  70 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        94  68  93  68 /   0   0  10   0
Navy Corpus       88  76  88  77 /   0   0  10  10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...EMF/94
AVIATION...LS/77

NWS CRP Office Area Forecast Discussion