Cormant, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

059
FXUS63 KFGF 201133
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
633 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Another quarter to half inch of rain across northeast North
  Dakota through Sunday morning as showers persist.
- Showers across northwest Minnesota through Sunday with
  another tenth to quarter inch expected.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 631 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Rain beginning to fill back in across eastern North Dakota as
expected along the inverted trough to the northwest of the
surface low centered near Fargo. Areas of patchy fog with vis
as low as 1 mile have been noted the last several hours but have
been short lived enough in any given location to minimize
impact thus no headlines.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...Synopsis...
A messy CONUS pattern continues with multiple shortwaves apparent in
water vapor imagery. The recent driver of our weather, a wave
now centered over Iowa continues to drift southeast amid weak
northwest flow with another wave on its heels in southern
Saskatchewan with an inverted trough between the two driving our
lingering shower activity through the next two days. Subtle
western ridging looks to build east over the rockies though
westerly/northwest flow will remain across the northern plains
through early next week with good cluster agreement on this
evolution. Past Monday clusters then diverge on the subsequent
shortwave progged to move into the plains with some taking it as
far north as SD/southern MN and others through KS/NE. Overall
this seems to have little bearing on any impacts with the worst
case appearing to be some light rain in the mid week rather than
predominant riding. Overall a quieter period once this weekend
wetness ceases.
Weekend Rain....
While not particularly impressive in any aspect showers continue
Saturday in eastern North Dakota and migrate east along the inverted
trough stemming from the shortwave moving to the southeast in Iowa.
A sfc low is also noted along this deformation zone which will help
to focus showers with lapse rates today exceeding 7.0C/km at times
in northwest Minnesota leading to some scattered thunder as a few
hundred MUCAPE near the the low develops in the afternoon with peak
heating. Should more cloud cover exist MUCAPE would be slight more
limited but likely still greater than zero and simply reduce the
areal extent of any thunder activity. Looking a an 80% chance for >
0.25" in northeast ND through Saturday night with a 50% for those
same amounts in northwest MN through Sunday. There is a greater than
60% chance for all areas of more than 0.10 with most having a 80%
chance or greater. So to spell it out simply rain continues for all
with most seeing 0.10 and pockets of 0.25" or greater in Minnesota.
Looking forward to next week drier conditions do prevail with
slightly above average temps. Average highs next week are in the mid
to upper 60s and average lows in the lower 40s. Looking to be about
10 degrees warmer on both ends with mid level riding for the first
half of the week followed by thermal ridging for the latter half as
flow becomes more progressive and zonal beyond Wednesday. Less than a
10% chance for a wetting rain (0.10" or more) on any given day after
this weekend meaning below average precip for the week and slightly
above average temps will be the norm for this week. I`m sure farmers
wont mind these this for a productive week as harvest begins to hit
full speed in the Red River Valley.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 631 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
IFR for many with patchy MVFR this morning. Cigs vary
considerably with anywhere from isolated LIFR to IFR in areas
on ongoing showers with mainly MVFR in the DVL region and MVFR
through all of the valley and MN sites. Unlikely that conditions
improve considerably this afternoon especially with rain
showers becoming more widespread in MN and embedded
thunderstorms possible. But hey at least winds are generally
light and variable.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...TT

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion