Cormant, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

052
FXUS63 KFGF 210451
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1151 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and a few thunderstorms along and east of the Red
  River tonight, continuing in northwest Minnesota through
  Sunday. Impacts will be isolated lightning this evening with
  another tenth to quarter inch of rain.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Light rain showers still continue within Minnesota, turning more
isolated overnight.
Guidance still strongly suggests fog development, including
dense fog, within the region tonight into Saturday morning. A
few surface observations are showing reduced visibility due to
mist, a common signature of initial stages of fog development.
Still unsure of location where dense fog will persist; thus will
hold off on any dense fog advisory for now.
UPDATE
Issued at 641 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Received a report of a funnel in west-central Minnesota during
mid afternoon. Conditions favorable for funnels are quickly
waning with the loss of daytime heating.
Scattered showers will continue into the early evening hours
within Minnesota as the weak surface low slowly migrates
eastward.
Attention turns to likely fog tonight, some of which will likely
be dense. Ample low level moisture and calming winds will
promote low stratus clouds across the region to drop in
altitude. HREF probabilities for dense fog are around 40%, which
is a noteworthy signal. Will hold off on any advisories for now,
but will likely reassess as confidence increases in location of
dense fog tonight/Sunday morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Fairly wrapped up upper low rotating over the Manitoba/North
Dakota border currently will drift very slowly into the Red
River Valley overnight. The weak surface low currently over the
central RRV will move into northern MN. Most of the activity
with the low has been showers, but will have to watch if any
stronger cells develop enough to produce lightning with SPC meso
page showing around 1000 J/kg. Any CAPE will quickly dissipate
after sunset, with the lingering showers following the low into
MN. Cloud cover will continue for much of the night, but with
low dew point depressions and light winds can`t rule out some
fog forming under the mess of the upper low. HREF probabilities
have up to 40 percent chance for under half a mile visibility in
some spots, so will continue to monitor as we head into the
overnight but just have a mention of patchy fog in the grids for
now.
The upper low will continue to push slowly east through tomorrow
and tomorrow night, with scattered showers remaining in our MN
counties. By Monday, the main upper circulation will be out over
the Great Lakes and we should see showers dry out. The drier
pattern will continue into the work week with a blocky ridge
from the Rockies into the Northern Plains and the main cut off
upper circulations expected to stay to the south and east of our
CWA. ECMWF EFI has the wet signal for this weekend ending and a
warming trend expected in the ensembles. Temperatures will
remain well above seasonal averages with highs in the 70s and
lows in the 50s through the rest of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
High impacts to aviation are forecast from very low clouds and
fog forecast mainly between now through 15Z, potentially longer
into Saturday.
Latest guidance suggests very high confidence in widespread IFR
and LIFR ceilings, with probabilities of 70% or greater now
through 15Z over much of eastern ND into MN. After 15Z, chances
begin to slowly decrease, however, it is possible that these
lowest ceilings linger beyond 15Z given the lack of wind and
widespread cloudiness. Additionally, this same guidance suggests
around 40% for dense fog resulting in visibilities quarter mile
or less to develop between 10Z-15Z over locations like KDVL,
KTVF, and KBJI. Widespread fog is also forecast for the night,
although sites like KFAR and KGFK, confidence is not as high in
visibilities quarter mile or less.
Otherwise, widely scattered light rain showers will continue
within Minnesota through the predawn hours tonight. Variable
light winds will stay below 5kt through at least 15Z.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJ
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...CJ

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion