Cordova, Maryland Weather Forecast Discussion

275
FXUS61 KPHI 210723
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
323 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be in control through Sunday before shifting
offshore on Monday. A warm front will pass through the region on
Monday as well, before a cold front gradually tracks through the
area on Wednesday. This front will then stall over the Mid-Atlantic
region through the end of the week into next weekend, causing a
period of unsettled weather.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure remains in control today and into tonight. The
high pressure system does start to shift to the east but will
continue to lead to dry conditions during the near term period.
Winds will generally be out of the east today which will lead to
an onshore flow with low clouds present for at least the first
half of the day. These clouds do start to break apart during the
afternoon with conditions trending mostly sunny. Highs today
are in the 70s. Overnight, we continue to deal with a bit of
onshore flow which has the potential to lead to some more low
clouds, especially for the coastal areas. Elsewhere, it looks
to be mainly mostly clear. Lows tonight are in the upper 40s to
upper 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure over New England will shift south of Nova
Scotia on Sunday night before moving further east into the North
Atlantic on Monday. Ridging from this high will continue to extend
into the Mid-Atlantic region though, so aside for a weak warm
frontal passage occurring on Monday, relatively benign weather is
expected through the short term period.
In terms of benign weather, mostly clear skies are expected for
Sunday night as high pressure remains in control. We`ll likely
encounter one more night of strong radiational cooling, where lows
will fall into the 40s/50s under light northerly flow. The pattern
does begin to change on Monday though as surface flow gradually
shifts to more southerly as a warm front passes to our north. This
will be the beginning of warm air advection regime as highs on
Monday will warm back into the mid to upper 70s to around 80 degrees
under mostly sunny skies. By Monday night, a shortwave to the west
will begin to approach the region leading to an increase in clouds
with a slight chance of a shower in the Poconos overnight. Temps
will be much milder compared to the night before with lows only in
the upper 50s to low 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term period as a whole looks to be largely unsettled with
several opportunities for showers and storms. Starting out with
Tuesday, this may end up being one of the more active weather days
in the long term period as a cold front approaches. The region will
be located well within the warm sector as highs will top out in the
low to mid 80s with dew points in the mid to upper 60s. As we are
now within range of some of the CAMs and machine learning guidance,
there is indication of a pre-frontal advancing out ahead of actual
cold front, which may end up being the primary culprit for showers
and thunderstorms developing by the afternoon and evening. Too early
to tell if these storms may end up being severe, but can expect a
few locally strong storms possible given the overall environment.
Showers and storms will progress through the area on Tuesday night
before beginning to subside with the loss of diurnal heating. The
actual front then looks to cross through on Wednesday before the
front stalls south of the area by Wednesday night.
With the front remaining in close proximity to the area through the
end of the week and into next weekend, several opportunities for
additional showers and storms will be possible. However, there is
quite a bit of uncertainty with respect to the large scale weather
pattern into next weekend as deep upper level trough will dig into
the Deep South. There is quite a bit of variability amongst model
guidance in terms of whether this trough cuts off and meanders
around the Southeast US or not. So for now, have simply kept the NBM
output which carries a slight chance to a chance of showers and
thunderstorms for the Thursday through Saturday period. Temperatures
though look to be seasonable for late September.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Rest of Tonight...Trending MVFR due to lowering ceilings except
for KTTN and KPNE. E to SE winds less than 10 kt. Moderate
confidence.
Sunday...MVFR CIGs at KILG/KMIV/KACY in the morning, then VFR.
VFR for all the other terminals. E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt.
Moderate confidence.
Sunday Night...VFR. A period of MVFR ceilings are possible at
mainly KACY/KMIV but there was not enough confidence to include
in the TAF at this time. E to NE wind around 5 knots. Moderate
confidence.
Outlook...
Monday through Monday night...VFR. No significant weather
expected.
Tuesday through Thursday...Primarily VFR, with occasional periods of
sub-VFR conditions. A chance of showers and a slight chance of
thunderstorms possible with patchy fog/mist possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Wind gusts will continue to subsided through Sunday. SCA flags
will continue for most of the ocean zones with seas reaching
5ft today and continuing into Sunday night. Fair weather
tonight and Sunday.
Outlook...
Monday...Lingering SCA conditions possible due to seas around 5
feet. Fair weather outside of SCA conditions.
Monday night through Thursday...No marine headlines expected. Fair
weather expected for Monday night with showers and thunderstorms
possible for Tuesday through Thursday.
Rip Currents...
For today, east-northeast winds are around 15 to 20 mph which
decrease throughout the day. Breaking wave heights increase to
around 3 to 4 feet. Slightly larger easterly swell increasing to
around 2 feet at around 6 seconds in length. Some wave guidance
has a secondary long period (12 to 14 second) swell arriving
tomorrow. With greater wave heights, onshore flow, and multiple
swell groups (one of which being a long period swell), a HIGH
risk of rip currents are expected for today. Given that we are
late in the season, and not many beaches are guarded this time
of year, please exercise caution if at the beaches today.
For Monday, winds start out east-northeast but become more
southeasterly by the late afternoon and much lighter at around
10 MPH. Breaking wave heights hold at around 3 to 4 feet.
Slightly larger easterly swell increasing to around 3-4 feet at
around 8-9 seconds in length. Some wave guidance continues to
show the secondary long period (11 to 12 second) swell for
tomorrow. Due to breaking wave heights holding, onshore flow
lasting for a longer period of time, and multiple swell groups
(one of which being a long period swell), a HIGH risk of rip
currents are expected for Monday.
For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With multiple days of onshore flow, and a New Moon tomorrow,
some spotty minor tidal flooding is expected with tonight`s high
tide. Locations that could see some standing water in low lying
areas include the New Jersey and Delaware ocean coastline and
communities near Delaware Bay.
No tidal flooding is expected within the tidal Delaware River,
Raritan Bay, or Chesapeake Bay. Onshore flow weakens tomorrow,
with no further tidal flooding expected outside of tonight`s
high tide.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...High Risk for Rip Currents from 8 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for NJZ014-024>026.
DE...High Risk for Rip Currents from 8 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for DEZ004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ450-454.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for ANZ451>453.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 PM EDT
     Monday for ANZ454-455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DeSilva
NEAR TERM...Guzzo
SHORT TERM...DeSilva
LONG TERM...DeSilva/Guzzo
AVIATION...DeSilva/Guzzo
MARINE...DeSilva/Guzzo
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS PHI Office Area Forecast Discussion