Cora, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

570
FXUS63 KEAX 281147
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
647 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
...12z Aviation Update...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* No hazardous weather is expected over the next 7 days.
  - Above normal fall temps, mainly into the mid 80s
  - Dry conditions
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Frequent readers of this product/blog have probably grasped onto the
idea that the current weather pattern is awfully quiet and slow
to evolve. At least for our portion of the country. No surprise
then that this edition/iteration is much of the same...
Taking a quick peek at what transpired yesterday (Saturday), the
weak cool frontal boundary did eventually make it toward the Highway
36 and I-70 corridors, but by the time it did in the evening,
carried little to no effect aside from a wind shift. Temperatures in
NW Missouri (think St. Jo and to the NNE) did get quite warm
Saturday though, topping out around 90, due to 850mb thermal ridge
nosing into NW Missouri and possibly some weak compressional heating
contribution.
Back to current, you can tease out the air mass differences
associated with the aforementioned cool frontal boundary on various
observational products. WV imagery already depicted a dry air mass,
but an even drier air mass can be teased out, working into/through
central Missouri at the moment. Surface observations show a similar
story, albeit a bit lagged/displaced compared to the mid-upper
levels with the cooler/drier surface/near-surface air mass back
across Nebraska/Iowa and the surface boundary stalled out
around/just south of the I-70 corridor. This yields T and Td
differences of as much as 15 degrees within a 2-3 hr drive
northward. For today/Sunday, southerly winds will re-establish as
surface high over IA/MN slides eastward. This will keep our
established warm/dry air mass in place and continuance of highs in
the mid/upper 80s.
Deterministic and ensemble synoptic guidance remains in good
agreement on the mid-upper level pattern evolution the next handful
of days. Existing weak/messy blocking pattern will slide eastward in
response to an open mid-upper trough approaching the West Coast.
Current Tropical Depression Nine remains expected to drift northward
today and early in the week, and combined with Major Hurricane
Humberto, will provide additional blocking/resistance to existing
mid-upper ridge through most of or all of the work week. As a
result, western CONUS open wave will deflect around the mid-upper
ridge and to the NW of the area. Sizable cutoff low approaches the
PNW mid-week, and is where deterministic guidance begins to diverge
whether stalling and being absorbed into the larger flow or
trying to dig into the Inter-Mountain West. Regardless,
deterministic solutions deflect various shortwave perturbations
around the area to the NW as the blocking pattern tends to hold
or even evolves into a bit of a Rex Block look. Even should any
shortwaves be able to exert more influence/lift over the area
than depicted in guidance, it will be fairly difficult to
produce much precipitation opportunity with dry air mass
expected to remain in place and little opportunity for notable
moisture return. Some periodically increased cloud cover would
be the most likely result. Throughout this time frame,
temperatures remain expected to be seasonally warm, as much as
10 or more degrees so, at least into the mid 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 645 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
VFR conditions to prevail across the TAF sites today with clear
skies and light southerly winds reestablishing. With the dry air
well established, KSTJ appears unlikely to see river valley fog
set in given trends the last couple days.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...Curtis

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion