414 FXUS63 KDVN 261703 AFDDVNArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1203 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy fog possible Saturday morning, mainly in river valleys and low-lying areas.
- Extended period of dry conditions and above normal temperatures expected today through early October, with comfortable humidity.
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.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 228 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Upper level ridging builds into the area today as a rex block looks to setup for the at least the next 5 to 6 days. A wave moving across the ridge axis will drag a weak/diffuse cold front towards the area later in the short term. Before this occurs, weak flow and high pressure will be the main weather influencer in the short term. High pressure across the area coincided with a drier airmass as well. Today, we expect to see more of what we saw yesterday. A lot of sun, temperatures warming into the 80s with lower humidity. From a sensible weather perspective, this will be a great end of the work week.
Like this morning and yesterday morning, some patchy fog cannot be ruled out tonight and into Saturday morning. Guidance has the best chance for this to occur in NW IL. Have added some patchy fog in the grids to account for this.
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.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 228 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Blocking pattern is forecast to take shape as ridging builds into the area. Tropical activity to the SE will help to keep this block in place for most of the long term. While a wave to our north tries to bring in a cold front on Saturday, very dry air will result in no precip. The rest of the period will be quiet. Overall through the long term we have mild air aloft, and dry soil/air. This will result in large diurnal temperature swings. Lows in the mid to upper 50s are forecast each day, with highs in the lower to mid 80s (upper 80s possible Monday). This will certainly be great weather for being outdoors. We will need to keep an eye on any fog potential as well.
Main takeaway, it looks to be a gorgeous end to September and beginning of October.
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.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1203 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
VFR conditions expected. West-southwest winds of 5-10 kts weaken with sunset this evening before increasing to near 10 kts again by mid-morning Saturday. There is some potential for fog again tonight, but confidence in impact to terminals is too low for inclusion.
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.CLIMATE... Issued at 233 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
The latest 8-14 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center shows very high probabilities (70%) of above normal temperatures for the Oct 2nd to Oct 8th timeframe. Normal highs for this period are in the upper 60s/lower 70s and normal lows are in the mid to upper 40s. While above normal temperatures are likely, the humidity levels will be tolerable.
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.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.
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SHORT TERM...Gibbs LONG TERM...Gibbs AVIATION...Flanagan CLIMATE...Gross
NWS DVN Office Area Forecast Discussion