Conway, Iowa Weather Forecast Discussion

033
FXUS63 KDMX 101957
AFDDMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
257 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy fog possible again tonight, especially north.
- Warming trend Thursday-Sunday with highs in the upper 80s to
  low 90s on Saturday and Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Upper level ridge continues to nudge eastward today through Sunday
as the western upper trough begins to move through the western U.S.
through the first part of the weekend. Main result will be a
continued dry and increasingly warmer forecast over the next several
days as the thermal ridge nudges further east with each passing day.
Saturday looks to be the warmest day though temperatures in the 80s
to nearing 90 round out the week before upper 80s to low to mid 90s
are forecast for the weekend. With dew points `only` into the 60s,
heat indices won`t be as high as heat events earlier this summer,
but it will certainly be a warm end of week and weekend for
especially any with outdoor interests. The extent of the heat does
remain the primary forecast challenge through the weekend though
with a combination of the warm bias GFS/GEFS and related overmixing
sending NBM temperatures to the upper ends of the temperature
distribution, meanwhile nearby shortwave energy rounding the ridge
and increasing mid to upper level moisture will bring clouds into
play at times. As has been done for the last several forecast
cycles, continued to bring max temperatures down from NBM towards
the 50th percentile, but further fine-tuning is likely with cloud
cover potentially spoiling temperatures in some places.
In the shorter term, patchy fog will once again be possible late
tonight into early Thursday, especially in northern Iowa. Upper
level smoke will also continue to filter into the area through at
least much of the daytime Thursday keeping skies hazy. As noted
above, precipitation will be hard to come by for the next several
days. Although CAMs, and to a lesser extent some global models, do
try to kick off some scattered activity into early Friday with the
nearby shortwave, forecast soundings would suggest cloud cover vs.
precipitation reaching the ground with dry low levels in place. The
better chances arrive Sunday night into Monday as the upper trough
arrives in the region with details to be fine-tuned over the coming
days.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
VFR conditions ongoing across much of the area and largely
expected to continue though some SCT-BKN MVFR CIGs may occur
north with otherwise mostly diurnal cu this afternoon that will
diminish tonight. Monitoring for another overnight/early morning
of fog, mainly north, that would again affect KMCW. Have started
with VFR fog mentions there, but will continue to monitor trends
and make adjustments as needed in future issuances. Light and
variable winds will eventually settle out of the northeast to
east late this afternoon into evening, but are expected to
remain light, near to under 5-10 knots through the period.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05

NWS DMX Office Area Forecast Discussion