Conception Junction, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

745
FXUS63 KEAX 101108
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
608 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Low probability (15-30%) for rain in area southwest of a Olathe,
  KS to Butler, MO line this afternoon.
- Above normal temperatures commence today and will persist
  through at least the middle of next week. Temperatures may be
  15+ degrees above normal Friday - Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
A strong-severe MCS in southwestern KS will track to the southeast
through south central KS and northern OK through the morning hours.
This system will not affect the area directly but it is being
forced by a mid-level shortwave trough, evident at 700mb, and
may also produce a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) that will
track east into some of our southwestern counties this
afternoon. Instability remains limited, though may be several
hundred J/KG more than yesterday, across eastern KS and western
MO so the potential for any strong to severe storms is very low.
Have added some low PoPs (15-30) to our southwestern zones this
afternoon to capture the potential for precipitation in that
area. This includes the southwestern portions of the KC metro to
southern Cass and Bates counties.
Temperatures today will climb into the low-mid 80s, or about 5
degrees above normal for this time of year. But the most intense
heat will come later in the week and into the weekend as the upper
ridge amplifies over the middle of the country. This upper-ridging
will help lead to temperatures soaring into the middle to
potentially upper 90s Friday and Saturday, and lower to middle
90s Sunday into Monday, before the worst of the heat diminishes
some as the upper ridge weakens. Friday, the highest
probabilities for highs exceeding 95 degrees reside just east of
the KC Metro and into central MO. This expands Saturday to much
of western and central MO. By Sunday and Monday probabilities
decrease across the area, though are still highest in areas
southeast of the KC area and into central MO. Average highs on
Friday and Saturday are 78-80 degrees, so we`ll see highs that
are pushing 15+ degrees above normal Friday and Saturday,
potentially into Sunday and Monday.
Next week, as the upper ridge weakens and shifts east, we`ll see low
probabilities of precipitation return to the forecast, mainly for
northwestern MO and northeastern KS. The best chances may be Sunday
night into Monday as shortwave, rounding a closed low centered
roughly over MT, forces convection across NE that may then move into
NW MO and NE KS. Still, precipitation chances are generally less
than 30% at this point.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 608 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
VFR conditions expected through the forecast with south winds
today generally less than 10 kts. There remains some low-mid
clouds with bases around 5000 ft across western MO this morning,
with high clouds streaming eastward associated with a decaying
MCS in western KS.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion