College Mound, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

151
FXUS63 KEAX 191721
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1221 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of dense fog early Friday morning primarily for eastern
  KS and western MO.
- Chances (35-45%) for showers and storms starting late tonight
  into early Saturday. No severe expected.
- Near-daily chances for precipitation Sunday through the first
  half of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
A rather foggy morning anticipated with calm winds, very low dew
point depressions, and saturated soils from recent rainfall. A few
areas have already reported visibilities as low as a quarter mile.
Lowered visibilities are expected to become more area-wide primarily
for eastern KS and western MO as we get closer to 9Z-10Z. Areas that
received precipitation yesterday will be most susceptible to dense
fog (given the saturated soils). Restricted visibilities may make
early morning commutes a bit more difficult. Please exercise caution
when traveling through foggy areas. Conditions are anticipated to
improve by mid morning as a surface low over eastern SD pushes a
weak cold front through the area shifting our winds out of the west.
As a result, high temperatures for today will range from the mid 70s
to mid 80s. Areas along and north of HWY-36 will most likely see
highs in the mid to upper 70s where the surface cold front will pass
earlier in the day.
Chances for showers and storms will return late Friday into early
Saturday as a H700 shortwave associated with the parent mid to upper
low located over north IA. A 25-35 kt low-level jet nosing into
eastern KS could increase moisture transport and low-level
convergence allowing showers and storms to linger into Saturday
morning. There is some uncertainty with where the most favorable
location for precipitation will be. The CAMs highlight two areas.
The first area is along the MO/IA border where there will be better
forcing as those locations will be in closer proximity to the mid to
upper low and the second area is south of I-70 where there will be
more moisture transport and low-level convergence supplied by the
low-level jet. Regardless of the area, severe chances remain
fairly non-existent given the very limited instability and
overall unfavorable environment for severe storms.
Additional chances for precipitation arrive on Sunday as guidance
picks up on a H500 shortwave trough moving through the flow. Showers
and storms are expected to be widespread across the area with the
brunt of the precipitation more focused south of I-70. The LREF
keeps the highest chances (roughly a 50-60% chance) for measurable
precip for areas south of the KC Metro for Sunday morning into the
early afternoon. Monday, a closed mid to upper level low descends
from western Canada ejects a series of shortwaves through the flow
resulting in near daily chances for showers and storms through the
first half of next week. High temperatures will remain in the mid
70s to low 80s for most of next week with multiple rounds of precip
helping to moderate temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
There will be a brief period of MVFR ceilings initially as the
area transitions from morning fog lifts/transitions into
afternoon CU. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail this
afternoon and likely through the forecast. Scattered showers
move into the area tonight with the most likely timing after
05Z for the KC area and after 03Z for STJ.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...CDB

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion