Cloverdale, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

132
FXUS64 KEPZ 221111
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
511 AM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 510 AM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025
- Minor impacts due to isolated showers and thunderstorms over
   mountain areas Monday and Tuesday. Above normal high
   temperatures persist until a cold front arrives Wednesday.
- A more dynamic pattern may interact with leftover monsoon
   moisture towards the weekend, increasing rainfall and localized
   flooding chances. Depending on the track of an upper low, the
   pattern may even favor some severe thunderstorms, but forecast
   confidence in the upper low track is low.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1024 PM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Convection is dying as expected as it moves in from SE Arizona.
Expect a few scattered showers over the Gila and down into the
Bootheel through a little after midnight. An MCV is evident just
east of the Bootheel, but with steady westerly flow in place, this
won`t be much of a player tomorrow as it`ll be east of the area by
morning or have sheared-out by then. Otherwise, expect perhaps
some breezy west winds gusting to around 20-25 mph as an outflow
boundary pushes across southern Dona Ana and El Paso Counties over
the next hour or two.
A shortwave trough moving across the Central Rockies will graze
the northern half of New Mexico tomorrow afternoon. The focus for
convection will be mostly north of our area, but some widely
scattered thunderstorms will affect the Gila into Sierra County,
with a secondary area in the Bootheel region. Outflow and decaying
storms will try to push southeast Monday night, but will most
like diminish to just a few showers before coming close to El
Paso.
By Tuesday, a very complex blocking pattern will be in place
across the western half of the CONUS, with mostly zonal flow
across southern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Another
shortwave trough will graze northern NM, and a few storms mainly
north of I-10 are expected again in the afternoon.
Mid-week, our block looks more like a classic Omega block, with
the subtropical ridge centered over Sonora, with the ridge axis
extending north into Utah and Idaho. Troughing will shift east
towards the Midwest, and a weak backdoor cold front will push
towards the Rio Grande in its wake Tuesday night, pushing west of
the Continental Divide Wednesday afternoon. A few storms could
develop Tuesday night in the Borderland as the front pushes
through, but upper level support is lacking.
Drier air aloft will limit convection north and east of El Paso,
behind the front, Wednesday afternoon, despite a lobe of colder
air aloft rolling across northeastern New Mexico. Isolated
thunderstorms will be more likely towards the leading edge of the
backdoor front, over SW New Mexico.
As the ridge associated with the Omega Block shifts east late in
the week, and a closed low moves into central California, upper
level moisture will attempt to stream north along the Sierra
Madre and the Continental Divide. This may bring an uptick in the
convection near the Arizona border as early as Thursday, then
slowly shifting east towards the weekend. But much depends on
the path of the closed low. It may swing into southern Arizona,
which would be a good pattern pulling up leftover monsoon
moisture, and adding a bit of fall dynamics and wind shear to the
mix in the Saturday to Monday timeframe.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 510 AM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025
SCT120 SCT-BKN250 this morning. Developing after 19Z mainly over
the mountains and west of Deming...isolated 5-7SM -TSRA BKN060CB.
Thunderstorms may move east after 23Z. Small hail and wind gusts
to 35 knots possible with these storms. Otherwise surface winds
variable AOB 7 knots this morning, becoming southwest 7-10 knots
this afternoon.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 510 AM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025
A chance of thunderstorms will continue each day this week, with
the best chances toward the weekend. As usual, the mountain zones
will see the best chance most days. Flood risk for burn scars will
remain at low level. Min humidity will remain relatively high for
all zones as we continue with a somewhat moist south/southwest
flow aloft, and non-thunderstorm winds will remain on the light
side.
Min RH: Lowlands 25-35% through Friday. Mountains 35-45% today and
Tuesday, becoming 40-55% Wednesday through Friday. Vent rates
fair-good through Friday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  96  72  95  68 /  10  10   0  30
Sierra Blanca            91  63  91  62 /  10  10  10  30
Las Cruces               91  64  91  64 /  10  10  10  20
Alamogordo               92  63  90  62 /  10  20  10  30
Cloudcroft               69  49  69  43 /  10  20  30  40
Truth or Consequences    90  62  87  60 /  30  30  20  20
Silver City              83  58  84  58 /  30  20  20  10
Deming                   93  64  93  65 /  20  20  10  10
Lordsburg                88  65  90  65 /  20  20  10  10
West El Paso Metro       93  70  92  68 /  10  10   0  20
Dell City                94  64  94  64 /  10  10  10  20
Fort Hancock             96  69  96  69 /  10  10  10  30
Loma Linda               87  64  87  60 /  10  10  10  30
Fabens                   95  68  95  67 /  10  10   0  30
Santa Teresa             92  66  91  66 /  10  10   0  20
White Sands HQ           92  66  91  65 /  10  10  10  30
Jornada Range            91  63  90  62 /  20  20  10  20
Hatch                    94  63  92  63 /  20  20  10  20
Columbus                 93  66  93  67 /  20  20   0  10
Orogrande                90  62  90  61 /  10  10  10  30
Mayhill                  81  55  79  49 /  10  20  30  30
Mescalero                81  53  80  48 /  20  20  30  40
Timberon                 78  53  78  48 /  10  20  20  30
Winston                  82  51  81  49 /  40  30  30  20
Hillsboro                90  59  89  59 /  30  30  20  20
Spaceport                90  61  88  60 /  20  20  20  20
Lake Roberts             84  53  84  52 /  40  30  30  20
Hurley                   86  59  87  60 /  20  20  10  10
Cliff                    90  61  91  61 /  30  20  10  10
Mule Creek               85  58  87  57 /  40  20  10  10
Faywood                  86  61  87  61 /  20  30  20  20
Animas                   90  65  90  65 /  20  20  10  10
Hachita                  89  63  90  65 /  20  20  10  10
Antelope Wells           90  64  90  65 /  20  10  20  10
Cloverdale               85  62  86  63 /  20  10  20  10
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...17-Hefner

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion