Clinton, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

732
FXUS63 KABR 080510 AAC
AFDABR
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1210 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is a 20% chance of showers and a few storms late tonight
  into Monday morning over portions of east central SD into west
  central MN. Severe weather is not expected at this time.
- Highs Monday will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal across the
  region.
- Mainly elevated smoke will move across the area Monday. Some of
  this smoke will be near the surface with visibility reductions
  possible mainly west of the Missouri River Monday afternoon into
  Monday night.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 849 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Not much in the way of changes planned to the forecast for the
overnight. Warm air advection and south-southeast winds ahead of
an approaching front will keep lows more mild (40s/50s) compared
to recent nights. Latest HRRR-smoke continues to show thickening
smoke aloft overnight, with any chances for surface smoke over
central SD holding off until later in the day Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Each day the flat cumulus clouds shift just a little farther east,
along with the surface ridge. We`re now set up with south to
southeasterly winds between the exiting ride and elongated surface
trough over MT/eastern WY/far southwestern SD. Much warmer air is
expected tonight. Unlike lows in the 30s, they will only fall into
the 50 to 60 degree range tonight, lowest near the North Dakota
border. Looking at the satellite imagery today, smoke has been
abundant over WY and northern MT. While much of this is elevated on
the eastern side, it is at the surface and showing air quality
issues (per the EPA fire.airnow.gov page). The 12Z HRRR indicated
that this elevated smoke will move to the surface and result in 4-
5SM visibilities over portions of central SD as early as Monday
afternoon, mainly west of the MO River. This has been added to our
forecast as well. We have also continued the trend of increasing
cloud cover based on the smoke as well. Depending on how thick the
smoke gets it could hamper temperatures from reaching the mid to
upper 80s west of the MO River on Monday. 80s will be common across
the entire forecast area, with upper 70s across west central MN.
Otherwise, we`ll be tracking the surface low as it moves across
central SD Monday afternoon. There is a 20 percent chance of light
showers or thunderstorms ahead of the surface low over far eastern
SD and west central MN late tonight into Monday morning and again
Monday night as the surface low will sinks across southeastern
SD Dakota Tuesday afternoon.
The 500mb ridge to our west will be overhead Wednesday and Thursday.
Highs will stay mainly in the 80s through the period, with lows in
the 50s to mid 60s. Limited precipitation chances will continue.
We`ll me monitoring the track of the next low to our west Thursday
into early Friday. While there is still some uncertainty on timing
and location, a surface low will likely be across the Dakotas
Saturday into Sunday. The highest chances of precipitation (20-50%)
will be Friday night into Saturday, highest over central SD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
Mostly VFR conditions can be expected through the period. Low-level
wind shear will be a concern through the overnight period and have
inserted mention of this into the TAFs. Otherwise, near-surface
smoke will approach central SD towards the end of the TAF period,
but unclear yet whether or not it`ll be far enough east to affect
KPIR/KMBG by 06Z Tues.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...20

NWS ABR Office Area Forecast Discussion