Clayton, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

973
FXUS64 KBMX 250608
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
108 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 106 AM CDT THU SEP 25 2025
- Scattered to numerous showers with isolated to scattered
  thunderstorm activity is forecast across much of the area today.
- Expect lower chances for showers and a few thunderstorms Friday
  and Saturday, mainly across the eastern portions of the forecast
  area.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Thursday Night)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT WED SEP 24 2025
Longwave positive-tilted troughing extended from an upper low
over the East-Central Great Lakes region southwest to over the
Ozarks and the ArkLaTex region. Toward the surface, a cold front
extended fro low pressure across the Northeast Ohio River Valley
Region southwest toward the Mid-South Region and further south
toward Southeast Coastal Texas. Surface high pressure was centered
across the Northeast Gulf while a surface trough was analyzed
across Northern Georgia extending northeast across the Western
Carolinas and into Northern Virginia.
The greatest extent of shower activity, scattered (45-55%) in
nature, along with continued potential for a few embedded
thunderstorms, will continue to move east, affecting portions of
the eastern and southeastern portions of the area through the
early pre-dawn hours. More isolated (35-45%) shower activity with
a low chance for thunder will exist for the remainder of the
forecast area through mid-morning on Thursday. Humid conditions
with low temperatures ranging from the upper 60s northwest to the
low 70s south and central.
The positively-tilted through will continue to move further east,
extending from over the Northeast Ohio River Valley region
southwest to over the Lower Mississippi River Valley Region by
Thursday afternoon. The surface cold front will likewise continue
to advance eastward, extending from Upstate New York southwest
through the Tennessee Valley and into Central Louisiana by midday
on Thursday. Expect chances for shower and thunderstorm activity
to increase from mid to late morning across the forecast area with
greatest potential in numerous coverage (70-90%) across the
southeast half of the area through the afternoon hours with more
isolated (40-60%) across the northwest portion of the area. High
temperatures will range from the upper 70s far northwest and in
the higher elevations north and east to readings in the mid 80s
southeast and southwest.
By Thursday night, the trough axis will be nearing the forecast
area from the northwest while the surface front is progged to
parallel the Interstate 59 corridor. Look for scattered (35-55%)
chances for showers and thunderstorms across the southeast third
of the forecast area with isolated (15-30%) elsewhere and
gradually decreasing through the night. Low temperatures will
range from near 60 far northwest to the mid to upper 60s generally
along and southeast of the Interstate 59 corridor.
05
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT WED SEP 24 2025
Friday through Saturday.
Most global numerical modeling depicts the base of the deep
trough over the Tennessee Valley Region further deepening into a
cut-off upper low during the afternoon into evening hours on
Friday. Broad troughing will persist over much of the forecast
area as the upper low gradually deamplifies as it becomes
positioned over Northwest Georgia by Saturday afternoon. The
surface cold front will advance further southeast, extending from
the Tidewater of Virginia extending southwest to near Montgomery
and further south toward Pensacola by Friday morning with the
front clearing the state to the southeast by the early evening
hours. Isolated (15-35%) chances for shower activity is forecast
across much of the northern and central counties while scattered
(35-55%) chances for lingering shower and thunderstorms activity
is forecast across the southeast counties on Friday. Highs Friday
will range from the upper 70s far north and far east in the higher
elevations to readings in the mid 80s south and southwest. Lows
Saturday morning will range from the upper 50s across the
northwest quarter of the area to readings in the low to mid 60s
far south and southeast. Chances for isolated (10-20%) showers
will linger across the eastern third of the area through much of
the day Saturday before drier air aloft overspreads much of the
area from the west by evening.
Sunday through Wednesday.
A lingering mid to upper-level weakness will persist to our
northeast over the Southern and Central Appalachians. The cold
front that moved through the area will stall across South Florida
and will extend northward along the Southeast Atlantic Coast while
surface high pressure intensifies as it extends from across the
Eastern Ohio River Valley Region southwest through the Midwest,
Tennessee Valley and into the Deep South and Central Plains with
dry and warming conditions expected. Lows will moderate from
readings in the upper 60s north and northwest to values in the low
to mid 60s south and southeast Sunday morning a return to low
temperatures in the low to mid 60s across the area toward midweek.
High temperatures will persist in the low to mid 80s across much
of the area.
05
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT WED SEP 24 2025
Friday through Saturday.
Most global numerical modeling depicts the base of the deep
trough over the Tennessee Valley Region further deepening into a
cut-off upper low during the afternoon into evening hours on
Friday. Broad troughing will persist over much of the forecast
area as the upper low gradually deamplifies as it becomes
positioned over Northwest Georgia by Saturday afternoon. The
surface cold front will advance further southeast, extending from
the Tidewater of Virginia extending southwest to near Montgomery
and further south toward Pensacola by Friday morning with the
front clearing the state to the southeast by the early evening
hours. Isolated (15-35%) chances for shower activity is forecast
across much of the northern and central counties while scattered
(35-55%) chances for lingering shower and thunderstorms activity
is forecast across the southeast counties on Friday. Highs Friday
will range from the upper 70s far north and far east in the higher
elevations to readings in the mid 80s south and southwest. Lows
Saturday morning will range from the upper 50s across the
northwest quarter of the area to readings in the low to mid 60s
far south and southeast. Chances for isolated (10-20%) showers
will linger across the eastern third of the area through much of
the day Saturday before drier air aloft overspreads much of the
area from the west by evening.
Sunday through Wednesday.
A lingering mid to upper-level weakness will persist to our
northeast over the Southern and Central Appalachians. The cold
front that moved through the area will stall across South Florida
and will extend northward along the Southeast Atlantic Coast while
surface high pressure intensifies as it extends from across the
Eastern Ohio River Valley Region southwest through the Midwest,
Tennessee Valley and into the Deep South and Central Plains with
dry and warming conditions expected. Lows will moderate from
readings in the upper 60s north and northwest to values in the low
to mid 60s south and southeast Sunday morning a return to low
temperatures in the low to mid 60s across the area toward midweek.
High temperatures will persist in the low to mid 80s across much
of the area.
05
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT THU SEP 25 2025
MVFR ceilings with lingering isolated shower activity will
continue to affect the area overnight. Expect low clouds to
persist into the early morning hours, followed by VFR conditions
outside of scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm activity
developing towards midday and persisting through much of the
afternoon.
05
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorm activity will
continue to affect the forecast area through late in the day on
Thursday as a cold front arrives from the northwest. Beneficial
rainfall is expected across much of the area, however, much more
rain will be needed to alleviate the ongoing drought conditions
experienced across portions of Central Alabama. A return to dry
conditions is expected by Saturday evening and will persist into
the first few days of the next workweek.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     80  63  81  60 /  60  20  20  10
Anniston    79  66  81  62 /  80  20  20  10
Birmingham  81  66  81  62 /  60  20  10   0
Tuscaloosa  82  65  82  62 /  50  10  10   0
Calera      80  66  82  63 /  70  20  10   0
Auburn      79  68  80  64 /  90  40  30  10
Montgomery  81  67  83  63 /  90  40  20  10
Troy        81  67  82  62 /  90  50  30  10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05

NWS BMX Office Area Forecast Discussion