Clay, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

287
FXUS63 KGID 141125
AFDGID
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
625 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A band of showers moves across the area this morning, bringing widespread
  rain to the area.
- Thunderstorms develop along a cold front across western
  portions of the area this afternoon. A few of these storms
  could be strong- severe capable of producing large hail and
  damaging wind gusts.
- Highs in the 80s on Monday and Tuesday.
- Another round of widespread showers/storms (40-75%) arrives Tuesday
  afternoon-overnight.
- Cooler but active weather is expected Wednesday onwards with
  chances (30-60%) for storms each day.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Today and tonight...
A band of showers is currently developing along and west of Highway
183. Aloft, a trough over the Rockies is beginning to take on a
negative tilt, with an associated surface low emerging over
northeastern CO/Southwestern NE. The band of showers will remain
fairly stationary through around sunrise as it fills in. As the
negatively tilted trough moves into the Plains, it will steadily
shift the band of showers east across the area during the mid-late
morning hours. This will result in fairly widespread rainfall across
the area this morning/early afternoon, though accumulations look to
remain fairly light with this round (0.05-0.25 for most areas).
Western portions of the area are expected to see at least some
clearing behind the band of showers. Any sunshine will allow
instability to quickly increase, reaching 1000-2000 J/Kg of CAPE.
As a cold front from the surface low pushes its way into the area
this afternoon, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along
the cold front. CAPE combined with shear of 25-30kts will result in
an environment supportive of strong-severe thunderstorms capable of
producing large hail and damaging wind gusts. Thunderstorms are
likely to form into one or more clusters as they move east into
central/eastern portions of the area this evening. Instability will
quickly drop off around sunset resulting in thunderstorms decreasing
in intensity. Any lingering shower/storm will exit eastern portions
of the area shortly after midnight.
Monday...
West-southwesterly flow will redevelop over the area on Monday, as a
shortwave trough moves into the Rockies. Highs in the 80s are
expected on Monday with southerly winds gusting 15-20mph and mostly
sunny skies. Lows Monday night will be in the 60s.
Tuesday...
A cold front sinks into the area on Tuesday ahead of an approaching
shortwave trough. The cold front will stretch from central South
Dakota to northeastern Colorado Tuesday afternoon. South of the cold
front, highs in the 80s are expected. Scattered thunderstorms will
develop along the cold front during the afternoon. A few strong-
severe storms are possible given favorable CAPE and sufficient
shear, though the extent of severe potential remains uncertain
at this time. Storms move southeast across the area Tuesday
evening/night, bringing another chance (40-75%) for widespread
precipitation to the area.
Wednesday Onwards...
Troughing over the Rockies will become somewhat cut off from the
broader flow aloft on Wednesday, with an upper level low slowly
moving across the area through the latter half of the forecast
period. Multiple waves of energy within this low will bring
scattered chances (30-60%) for storms to the area each day. Below
normal temperatures are expected Wednesday onwards with highs in the
70s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 619 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
Showers will become steady this morning. MVFR visibility will be
possible at times in the heaviest showers during the mid-late
morning hours. A brief lull is expected this afternoon, before
scattered thunderstorms develop west of the TAF sites and move
east towards KEAR then KGRI. The timing and coverage of these
remains uncertain, so a PROB30 group was maintained. Sub-VFR
conditions are possible in these storms. These storms may also
contain strong winds, but confidence in occurrence is not high
enough to include in the TAF at this time. Thunderstorms are
expected to exit the area by the late evening hours.
Southerly winds will increase this morning, with sustained winds
around 15kts and gusts of 20-25kts this afternoon. Winds quickly
decrease around sunset with gusts falling below 15kts this
evening.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Davis

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion