026 FXUS64 KCRP 121104 AFDCRPArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 604 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 601 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
- Seasonal temperatures continue through the weekend into next week
- Next best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be Today and again early next week.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 1235 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Showers and thunderstorms are going to be possible this morning through the early afternoon hours as a shortwave makes its way around the aforementioned ridge parked over Texas. This is expected to combine with slightly deeper tropical moisture that will filter in over the course of today allowing for a low to medium chance (30- 55%). PoPs should be confined to the areas similar to yesterday along the southern Coastal Bend and Brush Country, and they should be isolated to scattered in nature. Model guidance continue to support this solution in the latest runs. After today though, rain chances diminish and dont return until early next week. This will be due to the progression of the ridge slightly to the east, which will allow for a steady diet of more shortwaves to progress into the region. PoPs come up to about 20% beginning Monday before increasing to around 30-45% over land by Tuesday and lasting through the majority of the week.
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.AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 601 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Brief MVFR conditions can be seen at a few sites this morning due to lowered ceilings and patchy fog across several sites. By mid- morning, all sites should return to VFR conditions and remain VFR through the remainder of the day. Passing showers will be possible at ALI and CRP this morning. Winds will increase a bit this afternoon before becoming light and variable once again tonight.
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.MARINE... Issued at 1235 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
A gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) onshore wind can be expected through the weekend and into next week. There will be brief periods of a fresh breeze (BF 5) across the bays and nearshore waters each afternoon. Low to medium (30-65%) chances of showers and thunderstorms can be expected Friday, becoming low (10-30%) over the weekend. Rain chances increase once again next week.
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 91 76 92 76 / 40 0 10 0 Victoria 95 70 95 70 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 97 75 98 74 / 30 10 20 0 Alice 94 72 95 72 / 50 0 10 0 Rockport 91 79 91 78 / 30 0 10 10 Cotulla 96 72 97 72 / 30 0 10 0 Kingsville 91 73 93 73 / 50 0 10 0 Navy Corpus 89 81 89 81 / 50 10 10 10
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.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. &&
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DISCUSSION...NP/92 AVIATION...JCP/84
NWS CRP Office Area Forecast Discussion