Chilton, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

092
FXUS64 KFWD 221036
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
536 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A cluster of storms is expected to continue to move southeast
  through the DFW Metroplex this morning. Strong winds, lighting,
  and heavy rain will be the main threats.
- Additional rain chances will linger through this afternoon in
  the northeast. Severe weather is not expected.
- A cold front will move through North Texas Tuesday evening into
  Wednesday with increasing storm chances. Some storms could be
  severe with damaging winds and hail.
- Near normal temperatures will return Wednesday through
  Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 431 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025/
Update:
A slow-moving cluster of storms is currently moving southeast into
the DFW Metroplex as of 4:30AM. This has been able to persist due
to ~500-750 J/kg of CAPE and a 30-35kt LLJ. While it has remained
sub-severe, it has produced wind gusts to near 35 mph, locally
torrential rainfall, and frequent lightning. This cluster is
expected to continue southeast this morning, and will likely
cause issues across portions of the Metroplex during the morning
commute. Make sure to take it slow and drive carefully! The rest
of the forecast has not changed and remains valid.
Prater
Previous Discussion:
/Today through Tuesday Afternoon/
Scattered showers and isolated storms will continue to linger
across North Texas over the next several hours as the upper level
low shifts further east into Arkansas and Louisiana. Overnight, a
deck of low-level stratus is expected to move northward into
Central Texas, leading to a gray morning. While most of currently
lingering activity should completely diminish by morning, there
will remain a chance for some isolated to scattered convection in
our far northeastern zones through the afternoon due to some
lingering ascent on the back edge of the departing shortwave. Most
will remain dry tomorrow, with only some passing cloud cover
expected overhead. Afternoon highs will be able to peak in the
low- upper 90s for most.
Well to our north, a digging shortwave in the PACNW will advance
south, amplifying into a closed low as it moves overtop the
Rockies later today. The upper low is expected to swing across the
Southern-Central Plains as we head into Tuesday, shunting a
strong cold front southward. Ahead of the front, winds will veer
out of the southwest, allowing afternoon highs to again peak in
the low-upper 90s across North and Central Texas. The front is
progged to reach our northwestern counties later in the day, but
there is potential for some isolated to scattered showers and
storms in the late afternoon near and along the boundary as it
approaches.
Prater
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 136 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025/
/Tuesday Evening Onward/
The front will continue to move through the region late Tuesday
into Wednesday, with the bulk of precipitation along the front
expected to occur Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Initial
storms will likely have a discrete mode, eventually growing
upscale into clusters and line segments as the front moves further
into North and Central Texas. The environment out ahead of the
front will be characterized by CAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg, around
30-40 kts of deep shear, and ~6.5 degC/km lapse rates, on top of
1.50"+ PWATs. All this being said, there is a potential for strong
to severe storms capable of strong-damaging wind gusts, hail, and
heavy rain. The severe threat will be highest near the ArkLaTex
and areas east since the upper low itself and the greatest lift
will swing across that region. However, areas across North Texas
will still have a severe threat Tuesday night into Wednesday with
the same hazards as above. The front will continue to move
southward over the day Wednesday with rain chances being shunted
south, with all rain chances coming to an end by Thursday. Cooler
air will continue to filter in behind the front, with afternoon
highs in the 80s and morning lows in the 50s and 60s expected
Wednesday through the end of the week. The airmass will begin to
moderate over the weekend as E-SE winds return, promoting
afternoon highs a couple of degrees warmer in the mid 80s to low
90s.
Prater
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/
D10: A slow-moving cluster of storms will continue to meander
southeast this morning, impacting the D10 airspace. I have pushed
the VCTS to 13Z for DFW and DAL. The current trajectory has it
directly impacting the GKY terminal between 12-13Z, though there
is potential for the storm to weaken before it reaches the
airport. By 13Z, the cluster should be exiting to the southeast,
with no additional rain chances expected the rest of the
afternoon. Any lingering MVFR/IFR cigs and vis will quickly lift
as the cluster moves off. for the rest of the period, expect VFR
and increasing southerly winds to around 13-15 kts with
occasionally higher gusts.
ACT: Southerly winds with occasionally higher gusts are expected
through the period. MVFR cigs are developing to the southwest, and
is expected to move north-northeast this morning. Confidence on
any cigs at the terminals have decreased, and so have taken out
any MVFR mention this morning. Another deck of stratus will move
in overnight into Tuesday morning, and will have a higher
probability of impacting the airport around 12Z or later. This
will be handled in future issuances.
Prater
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    95  76  95  72  84 /  30   5  10  70  40
Waco                95  74  95  74  86 /  10   0   5  50  60
Paris               90  72  92  70  82 /  30  10  20  80  40
Denton              95  74  95  68  84 /  10   5  20  70  40
McKinney            94  74  95  70  84 /  10   5  20  70  40
Dallas              96  76  97  73  85 /  30   5  10  70  40
Terrell             93  74  94  72  84 /  30   5  10  70  50
Corsicana           95  75  95  75  87 /  40   0   5  60  60
Temple              94  73  95  73  87 /   5   0   5  40  60
Mineral Wells       98  74  97  68  84 /   0   5  20  60  40
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion