Chestnut Grove, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

448
FXUS62 KTAE 010006
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
806 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 752 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
A few showers have popped up in the eastern portion of the CWA,
and the forecast has been updated accordingly. They are expected
to fizzle out within the next few hours. Sky cover and PoPs have
also been updated to account for current conditions. Otherwise no
other significant changes to the forecast.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 358 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Northeast flow will continue to prevail through tomorrow. Lower dew
points will also be advected into the region from the northeast
throughout the afternoon, suppressing any shower activity to nearly
nil within our inland areas. Showers and thunderstorms will still be
possible offshore. Fairly benign conditions overall.
Expect cloudy conditions with highs generally in the 80s with lows
generally in the mid 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 358 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
As a trough continues to sweep across the Atlantic Seaboard, lifting
both Humberto and Imelda off into the Atlantic, in its wake we`ll
see a CAD setup without the cold air. We`ll have an established
surface high to our north advecting northeast flow across the region
continuing to supress convection through the end of the work week.
A tightening pressure gradient will lead to gusty conditions thru
this weekend. By Saturday the high moves offshore and southerly
flow aloft becomes established. This could lead to overrunning
over the northeasterly flow at the surface, potentially increasing
PoP chances, although any meaningful accumulations are not
expected.
Expect daytime highs generally in the 80s with overnight lows
generally in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 723 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Conditions at KDHN, KABY, and KTLH are expected to deteriorate
over the next couple of hours as the lingering stratus deck
continues to make its way across the area, with MVFR ceilings of
about 2500ft These conditions are expected to improve back to VFR this
evening. At KVLD, another stratus cloud deck is expected to move
over the area and ceilings could lower to MVFR conditions in the
early morning hours. Past this, VFR conditions are expected to
prevail at all TAF sites. Light northeasterly winds are forecasted throughout
this TAF period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 358 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Favorable boating conditions will continue during the daytime hours
through Wednesday with northeast winds around 10-15 kts and seas
ranging from 1-3 feet. Cautionary conditions are possible during the
overnight hours due to the nocturnal surges.
A cold front is expected to pass through and stall over the marine
waters Wednesday night, creating a tight pressure gradient
increasing the winds and seas. Advisory level winds will likely
begin Thursday and continue through the weekend with winds around 20-
25 kts and gusts around 30kts. There is about a chance that wind
gusts may exceed gale-force criteria (34 kts) during this time
period. Seas are expected to increase and range from 5-8 ft Thursday
through the weekend.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 358 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Northeasterly transport winds will continue through the forecast
period with gust values peaking around 15-25 mph during the
afternoons. Rain chances will be minimal over the next several days.
Dispersions for the regions will be moderate with perhaps a few
pockets of high dispersions in the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend
during the afternoons to go along with the elevated transport winds.
This may increase fire weather concerns late in the week into the
weekend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 358 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Very little in the way of rainfall is expected over the next week
with about an inch expected near the Gulf Coast decreasing to around
a quarter inch across SE AL and SW GA. There are currently no
flooding concerns as rivers and streams run below normal.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   67  87  67  85 /  10   0   0   0
Panama City   69  88  69  87 /  10  10   0  10
Dothan        65  85  64  83 /  10   0   0   0
Albany        65  86  64  82 /  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      65  86  66  83 /  10   0   0   0
Cross City    67  89  69  87 /  20  10   0  20
Apalachicola  70  84  71  84 /  10  10  10  20
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Oliver
SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM....Oliver
AVIATION...Reese
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...Oliver
HYDROLOGY...Oliver

NWS TAE Office Area Forecast Discussion