Chelan, Washington Weather Forecast Discussion

638
FXUS66 KOTX 272252
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
352 PM PDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm and dry weekend.
- Areas of haze and smoke impacting air quality across the
  region.
- Unsettled weather pattern next week with chances for showers
  and thunderstorms.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures trend warmer for this weekend with highs in the
upper 70s to mid 80s by Sunday. Cooler temperatures and chances
for showers for the first half of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today and Sunday: The Inland Northwest remains in mild and dry
post frontal airmass with passing mid and high clouds this
afternoon and into tonight. Temperatures today will peak in the
60s and 70s with the warmest conditions along and south of I-90
where it is sunny. Deepening southerly flow ahead of a
shortwave off the west coast and ridge amplification in the
central US will bring some of the last 80+ degree temperatures
to the Inland Northwest Sunday.
Monday through Saturday: Changes are coming tomorrow night with
increasing cloud cover ahead of a series of shortwaves. The
main low will stall off the WA coast Tuesday and remain nearly
stationary through at least Wednesday night bringing cooler
temperatures in the 60s, periods of showers through the week,
and breezy conditions. Showers Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon
may be accompanied by isolated lightning strikes with 100-300
J/kg of surface based instability. The best chances (15-20%) for
thunderstorms Tuesday are in the northern mountains and the
Idaho Panhandle. Mid-level cooling as the trough approaches the
WA coast Wednesday brings the best thunderstorm chances (15-20%)
west towards the Cascades and the northern mountains. With increased
atmospheric moisture, fire concerns will be very low. Some of
the higher mountain peaks above 7000 feet will see some of the
first accumulating snowfall this fall around an inch or less
through Thursday. There is still some uncertainty in rain
amounts through the week, but listed below are the chances to
see 0.25 or more from 5 AM Monday - 5 AM Thursday:
Columbia Basin: 10-30%
Palouse: 40-70%
Spokane area: 50%
Okanogan and Methow Valleys: 50-70%
Northern Mountains: 60-90%
ID Panhandle: 70-90%
Unsettled conditions will continue beyond Thursday with
ensembles developing another shortwave in the Gulf of Alaska.
Expect cooler temperatures, shower chances, and breezy
conditions to stick around for the late week and into next
weekend. /Butler
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions continue through the period though
smoke will be the primary concern with winds trending lighter
lowering mixing heights.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
Low confidence for MVFR or worse conditions from wildfire smoke.
-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        50  83  54  74  53  69 /   0   0   0  10  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  51  83  53  75  53  69 /   0   0   0  10  60  60
Pullman        48  81  52  73  49  68 /   0   0   0  20  60  60
Lewiston       54  85  58  77  58  74 /   0   0  10  20  70  50
Colville       37  79  43  73  42  67 /  10   0  10  20  60  70
Sandpoint      45  79  48  72  48  66 /   0   0   0  20  60  70
Kellogg        55  82  58  75  55  64 /   0   0   0  30  70  80
Moses Lake     47  81  53  75  51  72 /   0   0   0  10  40  40
Wenatchee      55  79  59  73  54  70 /   0   0  10  30  50  40
Omak           50  81  53  74  51  70 /   0   0   0  20  50  50
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for Central Chelan
     County-Okanogan Valley-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-
     Western Chelan County.
ID...None.
&&
$$

NWS OTX Office Area Forecast Discussion