Chelan, Washington Weather Forecast Discussion

569
FXUS66 KOTX 221118
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
418 AM PDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of fog Monday morning NE Washington and ID Panhandle
  valleys
- Near normal temperatures Monday, then warming back to above
  normal Tuesday through Thursday
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather will occur this week along with a warming trend
through the middle of the week with high temperatures in the 80s
by Wednesday. Dry and breezy conditions are expected Thursday
with temperatures dropping back into the 70s for the end of the
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday: The trough that brought rain and cooler
temperatures to the area will move out of the forecast area
completely by early this morning. With the increased moisture
brought by the rain to northeast Washington and the northern
Idaho Panhandle, patchy fog will continue this morning. Near
and around the Spokane area, there is a 10-20 percent chance of
fog, particularly along Highway 2 from Davenport through
Spokane. Fog will linger through the early morning hours with
models having the fog clearing out by 8-9am. Continued chilly
overnight temperatures bring fog and frost chances tomorrow
morning, though they will be lower than today. Drier air moving
in behind the front will drop PWATs down to 0.4-0.5 inches by
the end of the day, which is 70% of normal. A broad ridge will
begin strengthening over the Western US this afternoon and
evening, bringing drier conditions and higher temperatures to
the area. By Wednesday, temperatures will be back into the
mid-80s, which is roughly 15 degrees above normal. No
precipitation is expected during this time.
Thursday through Friday: On Thursday, temperatures remain in the mid-
80s, and the ridge begins breaking down and flattening. A surface
low moving into Montana from Canada will increase the pressure
gradient over the Cascades, leading to gusty winds funneling down
the Cascade gaps and into the broader forecast area. Wind gusts on
Thursday could reach 25-30 mph in the windier places such as
Wenatchee, Waterville Plateau, and the upper Columbia Basin, with 15-
20 mph wind gusts elsewhere. The gradient will not be as strong
Friday, with wind gusts lowering slightly to 15-25 mph. Because of
the conditions drying rapidly with the warmup, relative humidity
values will drop significantly through the week, getting into the
20-25% range by Thursday. These dry and gusty conditions could
lead to some late season fire weather concerns, and we will keep
a close eye on if any headlines are needed.
Saturday through Monday: Ensemble models remain undecided on the
long term weather pattern. There is still a split right down the
middle with half the solutions hinting at higher heights, dry
conditions, and higher temperatures will prevail, while the other
half hinting at lower heights, lower temperatures, and a chance for
light showers. Ensembles struggle further into early next week.
/AS
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: IFR and MVFR stratus developed overnight in Northeast
Washington and the North ID Panhandle. The valleys north of
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE are socked in (Colville, Sandpoint, Bonners
Ferry) with conditions expected to persist through 16-17z
before fog and stratus begins to lift and dissipate. Fog is near
the KGEG/KSFF/KCOE but with a slightly drier southeast boundary
layer wind expected to persist at KGEG/KSFF forecast leans
towards conditions remaining VFR, while KCOE remains in the fog
at times through 14z. Elsewhere across Central and Southeast
Washington clear to mostly clear skies expected through 12z
Tuesday with VFR conditions.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Through 18z this
morning: lowest confidence is KCOE as fog product satellite
shows the airport on the edge of the stratus. Moderate
confidence that conditions remaining VFR at KGEG/KSFF this
morning. High confidence in VFR conditions for KEAT/KMWH/KGEG/KLWS
through 12z Tuesday. Low confidence of smoke reducing visibility
below 6 miles for any of the TAF sites. JW
-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        71  45  79  50  84  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  70  46  79  50  85  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        68  43  79  48  84  50 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       75  50  83  55  88  57 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       71  35  78  38  82  40 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      68  40  77  45  81  46 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        68  49  80  55  85  56 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     73  43  81  46  84  47 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      74  52  79  56  85  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           74  48  80  50  84  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Air Quality Alert until further notice for Central Chelan
County- Okanogan Valley-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-
Western Chelan County.
ID...None.
&&
$$

NWS OTX Office Area Forecast Discussion