Check Row, Illinois Weather Forecast Discussion

834
FXUS63 KILX 240459
AFDILX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1159 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain with isolated thunderstorms will spread across most of
  central IL from the Illinois River eastward this afternoon and
  evening, and slowly depart the area Wednesday morning. Isolated
  2 inch rainfall amounts will be possible, but most areas should
  see rainfall under a half inch north of I-72, and around an inch
  to the south.
- A stretch of dry weather returns Friday through at least early
  next week with temps returning to above normal (highs in the mid
  80s).
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 850 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Showers and light rain continues across the area this evening,
with isolated thunder in eastern IL along I-74 near Champaign and
Danville. Current forecast handles this fine, but will be making
some minor adjustments to the grids to better reflect current
situation. Update will be forthcoming.
Auten
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Weak low pressure over eastern OK with an attendant warm frontal
feature extending across MO toward central IL is beginning to
spread showers into southwest portions of central IL this
afternoon, with high resolution model ensembles in good agreement
these showers will spread northeastward across most of central IL
this evening, with a few embedded thunderstorms as a few to
several hundred J/kg CAPE develops over the area. Deep layer shear
appears to be on the weak side for any sever storms, generally
under 30 kts. There appears to be a corridor where fairly
persistent rainfall could result in rainfall totals of an inch or
two overnight, as well as some spotty slow moving thunderstorms
that could produce localized two inch rainfall. This system should
slowly migrate eastward Wednesday morning, with precipitation
dissipating at least for a time. It still appears a frontal
boundary will be stalled out near I-70 Wednesday, with another
couple of shortwaves rotating around an upper level low stalled
out near the Great Lakes, set to affect portions of the region
through Thursday. This could produce some additional showers and
thunderstorms lingering into Thursday, mainly east of I-55. A
strong upper level ridge should build back over the region late
this week into early next week, providing dry conditions.
Temperatures will trend downward for Wednesday as the front
progresses south of the area, with highs mainly mid 70s.
Temperatures will trend back upward over the weekend, with highs
Friday around 80, followed by mid 80s.
37
&&
.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Broad areas of light rain and a few isolated showers will persist
through the overnight, gradually shifting southeast of the
terminals into the morning. Main concern this period is the
expected lower ceilings, with MVFR likely at all terminals and
some potential for IFR. Guidance is also hinting at lower visbys
beneath this cloud deck, mainly between 10-13z, but am not
confident in reduced visbys occurring outside of the rain which is
looking less widespread than previously forecast. Did maintain
the tempo groups mentioning lower visby (2SM) for now. The
ceilings should persist through much of the morning, with
improvement back to VFR expected some time between 16- 19z. Winds
will be out of the northeast around 10 knots.
Erwin
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS ILX Office Area Forecast Discussion