Chappell Hill, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

866
FXUS64 KHGX 261109
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
609 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
- Outside of an isolated shower or thunderstorm over the coastal
  Gulf waters very early this morning, fair weather will dominate
  until late next week.
- Expect seasonable temperatures around or slightly above late
  September averages and low humidity to join up with a mostly
  sunny sky.
- Low humidity may push down to near critical values today and
  Saturday, then remain fairly low into the week. Fortunately,
  seasonably typical fuel moisture will not aggravate the
  situation and light winds should be helpful. Regardless, some
  extra caution when using open flame or equipment that can cause
  sparks is a good idea for the next several days.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
For the next several days the stars of the show will be fair
weather, seasonably warm temperatures, and unseasonably low
humidity. It`s maybe not quite the "textbook" fall conditions, but
it`s not summer, and that`s something in itself!
For today in particular, and perhaps into Saturday as well, low RH
will be a nice break from months of oppressively humid conditions,
but could be something to keep an eye on if your weekend plans
involve open flame or stuff that sparks. Today in particular, we
could see a swath of sub-30 percent afternoon RH values emerge
west of the Houston metro, and particularly west of the Brazos
River.
Fuel moisture is around typical levels for this time of
year which isn`t horrible, but this can be a burny time of year,
so it`s not necessarily a mitigating factor. What will be a
mitigating factor is the relatively light winds expected. If
you`re a professional and your prescription doesn`t require a lot
of wind, this could be a good situation for fire use; but for
most of us, it`ll be worth some extra caution if you need to do
any work with fire this weekend. If you don`t get paid to set
things on fire, make sure you`re extra ready to keep things from
getting out of hand.
As we start the new week, high pressure will reign, and we should
get mighty close to a wind pattern that is driven entirely by the
landbreeze/seabreeze circulation. Yes, this means some onshore
flow each afternoon from Monday onward, and yes, some humidity
will start to filter back in, at least for coastal areas (not so
sure how much penetration inland we`re going to get, really). But
despite that, conditions should still remain fairly dry as we will
not be seeing such weak flow push in a ton of moisture. In fact, I
don`t have a 70 degree dewpoint come back to even the immediate
coast until the end of this forecast period. Pair that with plenty
of sun and temps ranging from the 60s around dawn to around 90
degrees in the afternoon, and it`s quite a recipe to close out
September!
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
With the exception of LBX who is experiencing intermittent
periods of reduced visibility due to patchy fog, all other sites
will be VFR throughout the TAF period. Winds will be light and
northerly/northeasterly throughout most of the day. Later in the
afternoon closer to the coast, winds are expected to gradually
shift to become easterly before becoming light and variable
shortly after sunset.
Batiste
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Outside of an isolated shower through the rest of tonight, fair
weather looks to dominate through the weekend and a large chunk of
next week. Expect winds generally out of the northeast through at
least the weekend - a bit more of a northerly component today,
gradually taking on more of an easterly component later in the
weekend. Though mostly light to moderate in strength, winds may
come right up to the threshold for small craft to exercise caution
at times during the weekend, particularly in the range of 20 nm
to 60 nm from shore.
At the shore, water levels look to remain above astronomical norms
despite the offshore winds, likely due to their speeds being
relatively light most of the time. At times of high tide, water
levels may end up around highest astronomical tide (about 2.5 feet
above MLLW) rather than slightly above MHHW. Because of the light,
offshore flow, rip current risk should be relatively low.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  88  61  88  60 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  89  67  89  67 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  87  76  86  76 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Luchs
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Luchs

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion