Chaparral, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

081
FXUS64 KEPZ 081121
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
521 AM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025
...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 343 AM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025
- Rapid warm up starts Monday as dry air continues to filter into
  the area. Warmer than normal temperatures through the work
  week.
- Isolated storms possible over the area mountains each afternoon
  through Tuesday, dry elsewhere.
- Moisture returns Wednesday and beyond for chances of isolated
  thunderstorms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1008 PM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Mid and upper level high centers now over the Baja and northern
Mexico, with resultant dry westerly flow around the top of those
highs over New Mexico. PWs are sitting at around .7 to .9 inches
and dewpoints are still mostly in the 50s. This was able to
generate a few mountain storms this afternoon. Though PWs will
remain nearly constant Monday, dewpoints will drop into the 40s.
Thus it will be hard to even generate any mountain storms, and
grid POPs reflect this. Much the same story for Tuesday.
Temperatures will warm to well above normal, though latest models
are a tad cooler and isolated triple digit lowland temps not
likely now.
Wednesday and Thursday...upper high center migrates back east
over central Texas in response to huge upper low moving onshore
of the west coast. This will turn our mid-level winds back to the
south and begin importing sub-tropical moisture back over the CWA.
Both GFS and ECMWF show this as a narrow band of moisture both
days from about Deming west, with PWs back above an inch and
dewpoint temps in the 50s. Expect chance of thunderstorms west,
with just a slight chance to the east.
Friday through Sunday...moisture plume spreads east as the upper
low makes in roads over the Great Basin and eventually the
northern Rockies. PWs range from about .7 inches north to 1.0
inches south. Dewpoints will continue in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
Expect the chance of thunderstorms most areas, perhaps very low
chances for Hudspeth Co. Models also showing short waves rotating
around base of the upper low which could help with convective
initiation.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 343 AM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025
VFR conditions expected through the period with skies FEW at 10
kft and SCT at 25 kft. Skies will slowly become generally SKC this
morning becoming afternoon CU development. Winds light and VRB
through the morning, becoming S / SW during the afternoon at 5-10
knots.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 343 AM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Fire weather concerns are low through the week. Slightly drier air
will continue to filter in across the region. However, Min RH
values will remain above critical thresholds areawide with
afternoon high temperatures at or slightly above the seasonal
average. Winds through the period with be light and
terrain/drainage influenced each morning, becoming generally south
or west during the afternoon at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
Rain chances each afternoon through Wednesday look slim, with
10-20 percent chances confined to the Gila and Sacramento Mtns.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  96  72  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            89  61  91  62 /  10  10  10   0
Las Cruces               92  65  92  66 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               92  67  93  68 /  10   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               69  50  70  50 /  10   0  10   0
Truth or Consequences    90  65  91  66 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              87  61  86  62 /  10   0  10  10
Deming                   95  65  95  66 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                91  66  91  67 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       93  72  94  73 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                93  64  94  65 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Hancock             95  69  96  70 /  10   0   0   0
Loma Linda               86  64  87  66 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   94  68  95  70 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             92  68  93  69 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           92  69  94  70 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            91  65  92  66 /  10   0   0   0
Hatch                    95  64  95  66 /  10   0   0   0
Columbus                 95  67  94  68 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                90  64  91  66 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  81  55  81  55 /  10   0  10   0
Mescalero                82  55  82  55 /  10   0  10   0
Timberon                 78  52  79  53 /  10   0  10   0
Winston                  85  55  84  55 /  10  10  10   0
Hillsboro                92  62  92  63 /  10  10   0  10
Spaceport                91  63  91  65 /  10   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             87  55  86  56 /  10  10  10  10
Hurley                   89  61  88  62 /   0   0  10   0
Cliff                    92  62  92  64 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               89  60  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  88  62  88  63 /  10   0   0   0
Animas                   92  67  92  66 /   0   0  10   0
Hachita                  91  64  91  65 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           90  64  91  64 /  10  10   0   0
Cloverdale               86  63  86  63 /  10  10  10  10
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...38-Rogers

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion