Chadbourn, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

232
FXUS62 KILM 250017
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
817 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue Thursday and
Friday ahead of an approaching cold front. This front should
bring good chances for showers and thunderstorms Friday
afternoon through the weekend. There may be increasing impacts
from rough surf and rip currents at the beach next week from
offshore tropical systems.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Unseasonably warm weather will continue through Thursday as our
area remains in a WAA regime between offshore ridge and
approaching trough from the west. Low temps tonight around 70F.
Winds will remain slightly elevated as pressure gradient
tightens, which will prevent widespread fog from developing.
Could still see patchy fog and low stratus across Cape Fear
region early Thursday morning with very moist low levels.
High temps Thursday will again reach into low 90s (away from
the coast), with the current forecast just shy of record for
KFLO/Florence (forecast 94F, record 95F). Plenty of sunshine
Thursday will aid in enough instability for isolated storms
along the sea breeze in the afternoon before focus shifts inland
later in the day as upper trough approaches. Best shear remains
west of the area, with relatively weak wind field locally, and
severe chances remain low.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A pair of shortwaves embedded with a positively tiled upper
trough will pivot toward the East Coast late this week. The
northern shortwave will move across southern New England Friday
night and off the Northeast coast Saturday. It`s the southern
shortwave that will more-directly impact our weather, advecting
a flow of deep moisture off the Gulf across the eastern
Carolinas Friday through Saturday as a surface cold front slides
in beneath it.
After many weeks of dry weather and the recent expansion of
D0/D1 drought, this developing weather pattern should yield
some very welcome rain across large sections of eastern North
and South Carolina. Observed rainfall over the past 30 days
ranges from a trace in Lumberton (0% of normal) to 2.36 inches
in Wilmington (27% of normal) with North Myrtle Beach and
Florence in between those extremes.
Precipitable water values should rise to 1.9 to 2.0 inches
Friday afternoon through Saturday, about half an inch above
normal and just shy of the 90th percentile values for the date.
Daytime heating should push CAPE values to 1000-1500 J/kg with
no cap on Friday. Aided by upper diffluence from the right
entrance region of 200 mb jet across the Mid Atlantic states,
we expect 70 percent coverage of showers and thunderstorms both
days. Severe weather chances are low, mainly focused on a risk
of wet microbursts on Friday. 0-6 km bulk shear values grow
Saturday as the upper system moves into the southern
Appalachians but there may be significantly less surface-based
instability given clouds and the surface front potentially near
the beaches. Storm-total rainfall should range from half an inch
on the beaches to potentially over an inch inland.
For temperatures, Friday should be the last day for above-normal
readings with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees just
ahead of thunderstorm development in the afternoon. More clouds
on Saturday should hold highs in the lower 80s area-wide. Low
temps both nights should end up in the upper 60s to near 70
degrees.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Confidence in the exact shape and location of the upper low to
our west begins to wane next week. Last night`s 00z ECMWF and
Canadian along with today`s 12z GFS show the system lifting
slowly northward from the southern Appalachians Sunday into West
Virginia by Monday. This becomes important for two reasons:
- The deep flow of moisture from the Gulf should shift off the
   Carolina coast Sunday night into Monday, reducing our
   coverage of showers and thunderstorms
 - Tropical disturbance 94L, which some models show may become
   a tropical cyclone in the Bahamas this weekend, should be
   steered by the cyclonic mid and upper level flow around this
   upper low
The majority of ensemble solutions keep 94L off the Southeast
coast, recurving the system into southwesterly steering flow
off the East Coast. However a sizable minority of ensembles show
onshore steering flow that would allow more direct impacts
sometime during the first half of next week.
Tropical disturbance 93L, farther east than 94L, has an even
better potential to become a tropical cyclone and should remain
farther off the East Coast. Potentially two tropical cyclones in
the western Atlantic next week will increase the risk of rough
surf and rip currents along the beaches of the Carolinas even
if both systems remain well offshore.
Outside of tropical troubles, the surface cold front near the
Carolina coast on Saturday should slide just offshore and stall
early next week. A cooler airmass west of the front should keep
our high temperatures in the lower 80s. Even with northeasterly
surface winds the flow just above the frontal inversion may
continue to advect some low level Atlantic moisture overhead
with more clouds than sun expected along with lingering chances
for showers Monday into Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR dominates majority of the TAF issuance period. Exceptions
are in the 09-13Z period where patchy MVFR fog and/or sct/bkn
MVFR/IFR ceilings remain possible with ILM, LBT and FLO the
target terminals. Mixed boundary layer will help keep fog to a
minimum, however low stratus remains a possibility. Convection
well ahead of a cold front may sneak into the inland terminals
late in the fcst period, ie 20z thru 24z with possible MVFR
conditions. SSE-SSW winds around 5 kt should dominate the
overnight period. During daylight Thu, SW around 5 kt start the
day, increasing to around 10 kt except becoming S 10-15 kt at
the coastal terminals.
Extended Outlook...Rain chances and associated periodic flight
restrictions from vsby/cigs become a possibility late Thu,
increasing significantly Fri thru the upcoming weekend.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Thursday...Benign marine conditions through Thursday,
with south-southwest winds increasing in strength towards end
of the day Thursday to 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts. Seas
around 2 ft increasing to 2-3 ft during the day Thursday,
combination of S wind wave and E swell.
Thursday Night through Monday...A cold front extending NE-SW
across the interior portion of the Carolinas will very slowly
ease its way down to the beaches this weekend. There may not be
a sudden wind shift across the coastal waters to herald the
front`s arrival, instead south to southwest winds look like
they`ll become variable between northeast and southeast
beginning Saturday as clusters of showers and thunderstorms
develop along the ill-defined boundary. The front appears it
will stall somewhere just offshore late Sunday into Monday.
All eyes are focused on tropical disturbance 94L currently
located near Puerto Rico. There is nothing clear-cut about how
this system may develop and move over the coming five days due
to interactions with a second tropical disturbance (93L) to its
east, plus a complex upper air pattern likely to develop along
the Southeast coast early next week. Assuming one or both
disturbances become tropical cyclones early next week,
increasing southeasterly swell plus a steady northeast wind may
develop along the Carolina coastline.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...TRA/VAO

NWS ILM Office Area Forecast Discussion