Cedar, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

749
FXUS63 KGID 222030
AFDGID
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
330 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A few showers and isolated thunderstorms may impact parts of
  the local area through the early evening hours.
- Thunderstorm chances will increase significantly this evening
  and continue into the overnight hours. Some of these storms
  could become severe...especially between the hours of 6pm to
  2am.
- Continued showers and non-severe storms are anticipated
  Tuesday and Tuesday night...gradually drying out from north to
  south.
- Dry weather and seasonable temperatures return to the local
  area Wednesday, with above normal temperatures and dry weather
  anticipated Thursday through Monday. Normal high temperatures
  for the end of September run generally in the lower to
  mid-70s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
A few light showers and sprinkles impacted parts of the local
area this morning. This activity has since fallen apart as it
tracked east, with some thunderstorm development this afternoon
along a boundary across northwestern Kansas. Expect this
activity to continue to spread east and impact parts of Rooks
and Osborne counties late this afternoon, with activity becoming
more widespread this evening. The uptick in activity will be
due to an upper level shortwave rounding the trough across the
central Rockies, which should result in fairly widespread
coverage of storms initially across Kansas this evening, and
filling in across the entire forecast area overnight. Given the
available instability and modest deep layered shear, some strong
to severe thunderstorms can be expected through around 1-2 AM,
when instability really begins to wane. Correspondingly much of
the local area remains in a marginal risk for severe weather
from SPC with a sliver of the area mainly east of Highway 81 in
a slight risk for severe weather tonight. Large hail and wind
gusts 60+ MPH will be the main concerns.
While forcing for shower and thunderstorm activity will continue
into the daytime hours Tuesday, with minimal instability, more
showers than thunderstorms are anticipated with no severe
weather being advertised. Additionally, with a weak front moving
in from the north along with ample cloud cover and occasional
unsettled weather, a notably cooler day is anticipated, with
high temperatures possibly not climbing out of the 60s in spots.
Thereafter, temperatures will begin a gradual upward climb as
high pressure aloft builds back across the plains with a fairly
high confidence dry pattern noted through the remainder of the
forecast period. While not overly warm, temperatures will likely
reach the low to possibly mid 80s Thursday through Monday, which
will be about 5-10 degrees above seasonal norms.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
VFR conditions are expected to continue through the afternoon
hours with increasing clouds associated with an approaching
disturbance from the west this evening. CIGS will eventually
lower as the atmosphere saturates overnight...with prevailing
MVFR or lower CIGS expected at both terminals by 23/09Z...with
prob30 groups included to cover -TSRA/-SHRA potential along with
lower CIGS. Winds will be mostly light at less than 8 KTS
through the overnight hours...with a transition from southerly
winds this afternoon to eventually northerly winds by daybreak
Tuesday.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Rossi

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion