Cedar Key, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

555
FXUS62 KTBW 010025
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
825 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 825 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
- Limited rain chances the next couple of days as Imelda pulls
   away.
- Increased winds will lead to hazardous marine conditions
   Thursday into the weekend.
- Rain chances return Thursday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 825 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Quiet evening across the area with north to northwest flow
continuing to bring some drier air into the area in the mid
levels limiting convective development. We have seen a few
isolated showers pop up over inland areas, but overall partly to
mostly cloudy skies will continue to prevail across the region
overnight into Wednesday. Current forecast looks on track with no
adjustments needed at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 825 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Some areas of MVFR ceilings will be possible Wednesday morning,
and then some MVFR/local IFR conditions could occur in scattered
showers Wednesday afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions should
prevail through the TAF forecast period. North to northeast winds
will diminish to around 5 knots later this evening and overnight
then increase to 5 to 10 knots Wednesday morning. West coast sea
breeze will shift flow to more north to northwest at TPA, PIE, and
SRQ Wednesday afternoon.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
A thick layer of clouds continues to stream over the area thanks to
Hurricane Imelda as it moves away from the Florida. Otherwise, dry
air, also filtering over the area thanks to Imelda, will keep rain
chances low today and tomorrow. A slight uptick in moisture over
south Florida tomorrow afternoon will allow for a few isolated
showers to develop in that region. By the end of the week moisture
returns with a frontal boundary as it lifts north over Florida
before settling over North FL through the weekend. Winds will also
increase Thursday as the pressure gradient tightens up and stay
elevated through the start of the weekend. Scattered showers stay
in the forecast through the beginning of next week. Temperature
through the period stay right around normal with upper 80s/low 90s
as highs.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 209 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
As the pressure gradient tightens later this week, winds will begin
to increase, making marine conditions more hazardous, advisories
will be likely. Rain chances also increase by Thursday and
continue into early next week as a frontal boundary stalls over
northern FL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 209 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Though drier air has moved into the area, RH values remain above
critical keeping fire hazards minimal.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  90  75  88 /  10  20  20  50
FMY  74  90  74  88 /  10  40  30  70
GIF  72  90  73  87 /  10  20  20  40
SRQ  73  89  72  88 /  10  30  30  60
BKV  68  89  69  87 /  10  20  10  40
SPG  75  87  75  87 /  10  30  30  50
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...Close
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER....Pearce
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Davis

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion