Cebolla, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

390
FXUS65 KABQ 251110 AAA
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
510 AM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 458 AM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
- A storm system diving into southern California will increase
  shower and thunderstorm chances across western NM today and
  Friday.
- Moisture will continue to increase across New Mexico through the
  weekend increasing precipitation chances areawide. Though many
  areas will receive beneficial rainfall, locally heavy rainfall
  is a concern especially over recent burn scars. The greatest
  concern for burn scar flash flooding exists for the Ruidoso
  area.
- Drier weather will return for the mid week period.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 130 AM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
A storm system currently near the coast of central California will
dive southward across CA through Friday while shortwave ridging
prevails over NM. Through Friday, the ridge axis will slowly shift
eastward, allowing late monsoon moisture ahead of the upper low to
slowly increase across western and eventually central NM. This
afternoon, the Southwest Mountains will be favored for shower and
thunderstorm activity. Between 0.25 and 0.50 inches will be
common, though there is a low chance (~10%) that a few areas will
see upwards of 1 inch. A stray shower or storm may also develop
across the South Central Mtns and move over southwest Chaves
County but amounts will be light. Storms will diminish late this
evening, but the moisture increase will persist overnight. PWATs
in Albuquerque will rise from near 0.5" to near 0.8" by mid day
Friday. As such, storm chances will increase across western and
central NM. Amounts between 0.10 and 0.50" look to be common,
especially across the west central and southwest mountains, though
there remains a low chance of isolated locations receiving around
an inch of rain given slow storm motions. Regarding the Ruidoso
area, models appear to be split with some keeping the rainfall to
the east of the burn scars, and others develop storms right over
the scars. Thus, confidence is low regarding flood probabilities.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 130 AM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Much of the precipitation will diminish Friday night, though
isolated activity should persist. The cloud debris from the
daytime storms will linger overnight into Saturday. This will have
an impact on both temperatures and the available instability for
storms Saturday afternoon. Confidence is high that scattered to
numerous storms will develop Saturday afternoon, especially as a
weak vort max pivots northward across NM around the upper low.
Modest mid level lapse rates (~7C/km) suggest enough instability
will be available for isolated higher rainfall amounts (>1")
especially if a break in the clouds develops and helps
destabilize the area and/or repeated rounds of rain occurs.
However, overall it looks like 0.10 to 0.75" will be common.
Greatest concern for Saturday is where these lower amounts could
still cause problems (i.e. burn scars). A Flash Flood Watch will
likely be needed for the Ruidoso area if trends continue.
Fortunately, storm motion will be a little faster on Saturday
(10-20 mph toward the north). Storms may linger well into the
overnight hours Saturday night, including around Ruidoso. Though
generally speaking, intensities should weaken and less thunder
should be observed.
The cloud cover and precipitation overnight may again have an
impact on available instability for Sunday`s storms. But with that
said, strong ascent should overcome the weak instability. The
upper low over SoCal will finally eject northeastward toward the
Four Corners, though will weaken into an open wave as it does so.
Nonetheless, scattered to numerous storms are expected areawide.
The question will again be if there will be enough instability for
high rainfall rates. Overall, models do not seem very
enthusiastic about heavy rainfall, with amounts generally similar
to that of Saturday, potentially just more widespread. Flash
flooding on Ruidoso area burn scars will again be the primary
concern. And again, showers and a few storms will linger well into
the overnight hours.
The trough will continue to trek northeastward and weaken on
Monday and storm coverage will lessen as drier air filters in from
the west. Storms will focus along and just east of the Central
Mountain Chain and should diminish in the evening. The drier air
will continue to push in from the west on Tuesday, amd very few,
if any, showers and thunderstorms will develop. This dry air will
persist over NM through at least Thursday, keeping thunderstorms
chances very low.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 458 AM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Most of the
area will remain dry with light winds, though scattered storms
will develop this afternoon across the Southwest Mountains. These
storms will be capable of brief heavy rainfall as well as gusty
and erratic winds. Storms will diminish late this evening.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 130 AM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Wetting rainfall will be limited to the West Central Basin and
Range today with other areas remaining dry with seasonable
temperatures. Moisture will move into NM from the west Friday
through the weekend. Wetting precipitation will become most
widespread Sat and Sun where many areas could pick up one half to
one inch of rainfall, with localized amounts around 2 inches.
Thus, humidity values will trend upward after today, but will
trend back downward Monday through the middle of the week as drier
air moves back over NM. Temperatures will drop below normal over
the weekend due to the precipitation and cloud cover but should be
back around seasonal normals by Tuesday. Strongest winds are
expected with thunderstorm activity. Storm motions will be weak
today and Friday, but will gradually increase both Sat and Sun.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  80  52  77  53 /   0   5  20   5
Dulce...........................  78  38  76  41 /   0   0  20   5
Cuba............................  75  47  75  47 /   0   5  40  20
Gallup..........................  80  47  73  46 /   5  20  70  30
El Morro........................  77  49  70  48 /   5  20  80  40
Grants..........................  80  48  74  48 /   0  10  80  40
Quemado.........................  79  49  73  47 /  20  30  80  50
Magdalena.......................  77  54  73  53 /  10  10  80  40
Datil...........................  77  49  71  47 /  20  20  90  50
Reserve.........................  83  48  77  47 /  50  50  80  60
Glenwood........................  87  53  81  52 /  50  60  70  60
Chama...........................  72  40  71  42 /   0   0  20   5
Los Alamos......................  73  51  73  52 /   0   0  30  10
Pecos...........................  75  46  76  48 /   0   0  20  10
Cerro/Questa....................  73  44  74  46 /   0   0  10   5
Red River.......................  65  37  65  39 /   0   0  10   5
Angel Fire......................  69  30  70  32 /   0   0  10   0
Taos............................  75  42  77  44 /   0   0  10   5
Mora............................  73  42  73  44 /   0   0  20   5
Espanola........................  80  47  80  49 /   0   0  20  10
Santa Fe........................  75  51  76  52 /   0   0  20  10
Santa Fe Airport................  78  48  79  50 /   0   0  20  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  80  59  81  59 /   0   0  30  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  82  57  82  58 /   0   0  30  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  84  55  84  57 /   0   0  30  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  83  56  82  57 /   0   0  30  20
Belen...........................  83  53  83  54 /   0   5  40  30
Bernalillo......................  83  54  84  55 /   0   0  30  20
Bosque Farms....................  83  52  83  54 /   0   0  40  20
Corrales........................  84  55  84  56 /   0   0  30  20
Los Lunas.......................  83  53  83  54 /   0   5  40  20
Placitas........................  78  54  79  56 /   0   0  30  20
Rio Rancho......................  83  56  83  57 /   0   0  30  20
Socorro.........................  85  58  83  57 /   5  10  60  40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  75  51  76  51 /   0   0  30  20
Tijeras.........................  77  52  77  53 /   0   0  40  20
Edgewood........................  78  47  78  50 /   0   0  30  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  79  43  79  46 /   0   0  30  20
Clines Corners..................  74  48  74  49 /   0   0  20  10
Mountainair.....................  77  50  76  50 /   0   0  50  30
Gran Quivira....................  77  49  76  50 /   0   0  50  30
Carrizozo.......................  78  56  79  55 /   0   5  50  40
Ruidoso.........................  72  51  72  51 /   5   5  60  40
Capulin.........................  73  45  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  76  43  79  45 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  78  43  81  46 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  75  45  77  47 /   0   0  10   5
Clayton.........................  78  51  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  76  47  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  83  52  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  81  51  83  54 /   0   0  10  10
Tucumcari.......................  80  52  84  54 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  82  56  87  59 /   0   0   0   5
Portales........................  83  55  87  58 /   0   0   0   5
Fort Sumner.....................  81  55  85  58 /   0   0   5   5
Roswell.........................  83  58  88  61 /   0   0  10  10
Picacho.........................  81  54  82  56 /   0   0  40  20
Elk.............................  79  52  80  53 /  10   0  50  30
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion