Carson, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

031
FXUS65 KABQ 140800
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
200 AM MDT Sun Sep 14 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 107 AM MDT Sun Sep 14 2025
- There is 20 percent chance of patchy fog and low clouds in
  valley locations east of the continental divide early this
  morning, and a 30 percent chance over the east central and
  southeast plains.
- After mostly dry weather today and Monday, showers and
  thunderstorms return to the forecast over southern, central, and
  eastern parts of the forecast area Tuesday through Wednesday,
  then continue east of the central mountain chain Wednesday
  night.
- A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible east of
  the central mountain chain Tuesday afternoon and evening, then
  scattered severe thunderstorms look increasingly likely along
  and east of the central mountain chain Wednesday afternoon and
  evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 107 AM MDT Sun Sep 14 2025
In the wake of the exiting upper level trough, low level moisture
has been slow to scour out of the forecast area. So, patchy low
clouds and fog will continue to develop early this morning,
potentially as far west as the continental divide, and most likely
along and east of a line from Ruidoso to Santa Rosa. Will keep an
eye on it and issue a Dense Fog Advisory when and where needed.
The low level moisture should burn off by mid morning under clear
skies higher in the atmosphere.
After dry weather on Sunday with rebounding temperatures, a return
flow of low level moisture is forecast to develop over the
southeast and east central plains Sunday night, where there is a
roughly 30 percent chance of patchy fog and low clouds returning
after midnight until mid morning Monday. The moist low level
return flow will spread to more of eastern and southern parts of
the forecast area on Monday, when it will be drawn northwestward
by a low pressure system crossing the northern Rockies. There will
be a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms along and just
east of the south central mountains Monday afternoon, which is
significantly less coverage shown in previous model runs. In
the most recent runs the mid level high pressure system is
forecast to be centered south of NM on Monday, rather than
southeast of NM as depicted in model runs over the past few
nights for Monday. Otherwise, high temperatures will continue to
rebound Monday, mostly varying within a few degrees either side of
1991-2020 averages.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 107 AM MDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms is forecast
mainly over southern and eastern parts of the forecast area
Tuesday through Wedesday, then storms will persist over eastern
areas Wednesday night. The aforementioned upper level low pressure
system will gradually exit the northern Rockies toward the
northeast during this period, while a trailing upper level trough
moves steadily southeastward across the central Rockies; finally
crossing northern and eastern NM in northwest flow aloft Wednesday
and Wednesday night. There will probably be a few light rain
showers and thunderstorms in the Albuquerque and Santa Fe areas
during the afternoon and evening Tuesday and Wednesday, as long as
the northbound low level return flow makes enough progress. A few
strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible east of the
central mountain chain Tuesday afternoon and evening, then
scattered severe storms look increasingly likely from the central
mountain chain eastward on Wednesday afternoon and evening as
shear and instability peak under northwest flow aloft and a
backdoor cold front dives through the eastern plains. Rain amounts
Tuesday and Wednesday mostly look to remain under a quarter inch,
except for locally heavier amounts under an inch along the
central mountain chain, and generally 0.25-0.75" of rain across
northeast and east central areas (with locally heavier amounts).
A ridge of high pressure will build slowly over the forecast area
on Thursday with recycling moisture and a slight chance for
showers and thunderstorms along and just east of the central
mountain chain, and also over the southwest mountains. Friday and
Saturday will feature increasing shower and thunderstorm chances
over western and central areas as a low pressure system off the
southern CA coast opens into a trough and moves inland over the
central and southern Rockies.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1154 PM MDT Sat Sep 13 2025
With storms exiting the forecast area to the east, the main
concern tonight until mid morning Sunday will be patchy low clouds
and fog. Low level moisture remains rich enough for low cloud and
or fog to produce patches of MVFR and IFR conditions east of the
continental divide, and especially across the far eastern plains.
The greatest risk will be along and southeast of a line from KTCC
to KSRR. Otherwise, dry weather is forecast on Sunday. Winds will
probably be a little gusty at times over north central areas,
including KLVS, in the afternoon.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 107 AM MDT Sun Sep 14 2025
After warming temperatures and a break from precipitation today
and Monday, scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms will
develop east of the continental divide Tuesday through Wednesday,
then persist over eastern areas and an upper level trough clips
northeast NM in northwest flow aloft Wednesday night. Pacific and
backdoor cold fronts look to produce a potentially gusty north or
northeast wind shift Wednesday afternoon and night as they move
into northern and western parts of the forecast area. Isolated and
light rain showers and thunderstorms may return to the central
mountain chain and adjacent high plains Thursday afternoon. Precip
chances may then increase from the west again Friday and
Saturday, but models vary on how the weather pattern will evolve
by then, decreasing confidence in precip coverage and amounts for
these periods.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  78  47  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  74  38  78  38 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  73  44  77  48 /   0   0   0   5
Gallup..........................  77  38  80  44 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  74  45  78  48 /   0   0   0   5
Grants..........................  78  41  81  47 /   0   0   0   5
Quemado.........................  76  46  80  49 /   0   0   0   5
Magdalena.......................  76  52  78  54 /   0   0   5   5
Datil...........................  75  47  77  49 /   0   0   5   5
Reserve.........................  83  46  86  49 /   0   0   5   5
Glenwood........................  85  50  88  54 /   0   0   5   5
Chama...........................  68  39  73  41 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  72  52  75  52 /   0   0   0   5
Pecos...........................  73  45  76  48 /   0   0   5   5
Cerro/Questa....................  70  43  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  61  37  66  39 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  66  29  70  32 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  74  43  78  44 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  70  42  74  44 /   0   0   5   5
Espanola........................  79  47  82  49 /   0   0   0   5
Santa Fe........................  73  48  76  52 /   0   0   0   5
Santa Fe Airport................  76  45  79  49 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  78  57  82  60 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  80  55  83  57 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  83  53  86  56 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  81  53  84  57 /   0   0   0   5
Belen...........................  82  52  85  53 /   0   0   0   5
Bernalillo......................  82  52  85  55 /   0   0   0   5
Bosque Farms....................  81  51  84  52 /   0   0   0   5
Corrales........................  83  52  86  56 /   0   0   0   5
Los Lunas.......................  81  50  84  54 /   0   0   0   5
Placitas........................  77  52  81  55 /   0   0   0   5
Rio Rancho......................  81  53  84  57 /   0   0   0   5
Socorro.........................  84  57  87  57 /   0   0   0   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  73  50  77  52 /   0   0   0   5
Tijeras.........................  74  51  78  53 /   0   0   0   5
Edgewood........................  75  47  79  47 /   0   0   0   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  77  42  81  45 /   0   0   5   5
Clines Corners..................  73  48  76  50 /   0   0   5   5
Mountainair.....................  75  48  79  49 /   0   0   5   5
Gran Quivira....................  75  48  78  49 /   0   0   5   5
Carrizozo.......................  78  55  81  56 /   0   0   5   5
Ruidoso.........................  73  51  75  51 /   0   0  10  10
Capulin.........................  72  46  76  49 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  75  45  79  45 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  78  45  81  46 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  74  46  77  47 /   0   0   5   5
Clayton.........................  80  54  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  78  50  80  52 /   0   0   0   5
Conchas.........................  83  54  85  57 /   0   0   0   5
Santa Rosa......................  80  51  82  54 /   0   0   5   5
Tucumcari.......................  82  53  83  57 /   0   0   0   5
Clovis..........................  85  59  86  60 /   0   0  10  10
Portales........................  85  58  86  60 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Sumner.....................  85  56  85  58 /   0   0  10   5
Roswell.........................  87  60  88  62 /   0   5  10   5
Picacho.........................  83  55  84  55 /   0   0  10   5
Elk.............................  82  52  82  52 /   5   5  20   5
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion