Carson, North Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

991
FXUS63 KBIS 200222
AFDBIS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
922 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Slight chance of showers remain in the James River Valley
  through tonight.
- Temperatures warm back into the 70s and low 80s through the
  weekend, then remain in the 70s next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 920 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Some patchy fog is beginning to form across the region. Added
fog to the grids to match current trends from the CAMs. Rain
continues to diminish across the James River Valley. No other
updates are needed at this time as the forecast remains on
track.
UPDATE
Issued at 631 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Rain bands continue across the James River Valley slowly
progressing eastward. Low stratus continues to progress slowly
eastward and will likely linger across the much of the state
tonight into tomorrow morning. No updates are needed at this
time as the forecast remains on track.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Currently the upper level low sits on the South Dakota and
Nebraska border. A weaker upper level low sits just north of
North Dakota in southern Canada. Very weak flow over the
Northern Plains is a result of sitting between two low pressure
systems. To the west a flat ridge is through Montana, pushing
the southern low east. The southern low is stacked, so at the
surface the low is in southeast South Dakota. Rain bands
wrapping around the low continue from this morning. As the low
pressure slowly slides east, so will the rain this evening. The
NBM is holding onto the chance of rain in the James River Valley
and east until tonight. Scattered rain showers could then
continue from Valley City east through Saturday when the low
pressure reaches Wisconsin.
With the ridge building in from the west, this weekend will be
dry weather. Over the last week, areas of the south central
have received over 8 inches of rain, so it might be good to get
a break from rainfall. Temperatures will warm back into the 70s
and low 80s (far west) through Sunday with a thermal ridge.
Currently the ridge is on the western edge of North Dakota and
already eroding clouds across the west with the sinking air.
Early Monday another low pressure dives in from Canada, leading
to a quickshot of southwest flow. The NBM is still carrying a
slight chance of showers Monday, but is trending down from a few
days ago. As that low dives into the southeast CONUS, a Pacific
trough with a low could move on shore. This could lead to a
Omega blocking pattern across the Northern and Central Plains
mid next week. Above average temperatures are forecast through
the end of October both by the CPC and long range models.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Low ceilings will continue across central and eastern North
Dakota tonight impacting KMOT, KBIS, and KJMS. Low ceilings will
continue into tomorrow morning likely clearing by the afternoon
west to east. Winds are forecast to be light and variable or out
of the north across the state. There are some showers that will
linger across the James River Valley and eastern North Dakota tonight.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Johnson
DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Johnson

NWS BIS Office Area Forecast Discussion