Carp, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

896
FXUS63 KFGF 290033
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
733 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low over
  the next 7 days.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
High clouds are increasing from the west, with clear skies sill
in place across much of our CWA. The strongest daytime wind
gusts are beginning to decrease, while RH values have
stabilized and are beginning to trend up as we begin to decouple.
Near critical fire weather conditions should end as forecast
and SPS will be allowed to drop off at 7PM CDT. Minor
adjustments were made to reflect near term trends.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
...Synopsis...
Ridging continues across the Northern Plains through the middle of
next week, along with above average temperatures. A weak shortwave
could bring slight chances for precipitation Tuesday into Wednesday,
mainly across far northwest Minnesota along the International
Border. A rather deep upper low is expected to form just off the
Pacific Northwest coast late Tuesday into Wednesday, then move east
into the Northern US Rockies and the Plains by the end of the week.
This could bring several chances for precipitation as H7 waves
traverse the region ahead of the main trough axis.
...Near Critical Fire Weather This Afternoon...
Another afternoon of above average temperatures, low dewpoints and a
well mixed boundary layer will combine to create near critical fire
weather across portions of northwest and west central MN. Looking
upstream in SD/central ND, dewpoints are higher, and these values
will continue moving into the area this afternoon and evening. Winds
today have been a bit higher than yesterday, with gusts upwards of
20 mph across northwest and west central Minnesota. Heading into
Monday, RH is expected to be higher, with minimums in the 40 to 50
percent range during the afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period due to very
dry air in place across eastern ND and northwest MN. There is a
weak upper wave in SW flow that will bring increasing high
clouds (20-25kft AGL). Surface winds should decrease below 12kt
with gusts ending at sunset this evening. Surface low pressure
shifting east, with generally weaker gradient near the surface
trough results in shifting winds through the TAF period from the
south to east-southeast while most locations should remain 10kt
or less. Gradient does increase more towards north central MN
with east-northeast winds 10-15kt expected Monday at KDVL.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion