Carey, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

337
FXUS64 KLUB 060515
AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1215 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1212 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
- Thunderstorms are expected mainly northwest of a line from
   Denver City to Silverton on Monday afternoon and evening.
- A cold front, while initially stalling Monday morning across
   our northern counties, is expected to surge southward Monday
   night bring cooler weather on Tuesday. Some shower activity may
   persist Tuesday and Wednesday.
- Drier and warmer late this week.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
The next week holds indications of a number of systems
moving across the CONUS though the high pressure center across the
south will continue to be a primary influence on the weather in
Texas.  Early this Monday morning, broad southwesterly mid-level
flow. We have in place a subtropical jet streak  moving across the
southern Rockies.  The H25 flow will become increasingly zonal
through mid-week north of the subtropical high which remains the
dominant feature south of about 30N save a tropical system SW of
MMSL.  NW flow aloft builds into the region on Thursday as increased
anticyclonic flow ahead of a strong system off the Pacific NW coast.
 The Pacific system will open and move into the northern Rockies
whilst another low drops into southern BC leaving a rather potent
jet streak from the Great Basin into the the central Rockies and
northern Plains by next weekend.
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Showers had developed earlier this evening in our northwestern
counties where a theta-e ridge had been present. In particular,
the question being asked is just how long these will persist
through the overnight hours. Activity is not expected to be heavy,
with a few areas receiving a few hundredths of an inch, but some
sprinkles could be observed perhaps as far east as the I-27
corridor. Storm chances increase for Monday afternoon especially
in the northwest and west once again near a sagging cold front
which may not make much southward progress during the day. Precip
totals could yielding rainfall accumulations of...wait for
it...perhaps a few tenths of an inch in the NW with the rest of
the area remaining dry. The front should stall or potentially
retreat northward during the day Monday. However, perhaps
reinforced by outflows / passing trough to our north, we should
see the boundary move through the entire CWFA by Tuesday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Iso to Sct rain chances, particularly out west, continue
to be a possibility on Tuesday and Wednesday and this helps to
explain some of the variation in high temps Tuesday afternoon.  The
culprit is largely the variation of clouds this day though I suspect
the NAM guidance, keeping temps in the mid 60s, is a bit on the cool
side whilst the NBM which advertises a range from 70 to 90 NW to SE
is probably overall too warm as well.   Perhaps after things settle
out, we`ll end up with a pleasant day in the 70s areawide. If there
is one thing that is consistent during the week, it`s the presence
of H7 moisture which will yield scattered to broken clouds most
days.   After Wednesday, things tend to dry out with temps running
near to increasing above climo with time.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. South to
southeast winds on Monday will not be as breezy as this weekend. A
cold front moving southward through the Texas Panhandle will stall
later this morning, likely to the north of the terminals before
beginning to move southward and past the terminals Monday evening.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...07

NWS LUB Office Area Forecast Discussion