Canutillo, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

583
FXUS64 KEPZ 101120
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
520 AM MDT Wed Sep 10 2025
...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 417 AM MDT Wed Sep 10 2025
- Temperatures will be 5 to 8 degrees above average through the
  end of the week.
- Wednesday and Thursday will be mainly dry, just a slight chance
  for thunderstorms in area mountains and near the Arizona border.
- Moisture pushes east for Friday into Saturday bringing isolated
  thunderstorms to the region along with a gradual cool down in
  temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 944 PM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Our good old friend, the upper level ridge, is on the move again
tonight. The upper level ridge is sliding across northern Mexico
and will be centered over west Texas by Wednesday afternoon. At
the same time an approaching upper level trough will be moving
into the California coast. The circulation around these two
weather features will begin to draw moisture up from the south,
but it will be a slow process. By Wednesday afternoon the weak
moisture plume will be centered just to the west of New Mexico. A
few storms may drift into the area from Arizona, but like Tuesday,
most of us will stay dry. High temperatures on Wednesday will run
5 to 7 degrees above average, that will put much of the lowlands
in the mid 90`s. There is a 20 to 30% chance for El Paso to hit
100 degrees which may be the last chance for a triple digit
reading this year.
On Thursday, not much will change, the trough will be out west and
the ridge will be just to our east. The narrow plume of moisture
will drift ever so slightly to the east. Basically thunderstorm
coverage on Thursday will be very similar to Wednesday. Our high
temperatures on Thursday will come down a degree or two from
Wednesday`s highs. By Friday the upper level ridge will drift a
little east and the upper level trough will also push a little
east, which means the narrow band of moisture will move into
western New Mexico. Best chances for rain Friday afternoon will be
west of the Rio Grande. High temperatures on Friday will drop a
degree or two again.
For the weekend, the trough to our west will lift up and move
across southern Colorado. This will help bring a better chance for
rain to the whole area as the trough moves out on Saturday. By
Sunday the southwest flow aloft looks to keep the moisture plume
centered just to our east, but at the surface, southeasterly flow
will allow some moisture back in at the low levels. Right now it
looks like convection will be limit on Sunday, mainly to locations
east of the Rio Grande. High temperatures this weekend will run a
degree or two above average. For next Monday and Tuesday, we will
see better rain chances and high temperatures a degree or two
below average as more moisture moves back into the region.
Hopefully we can squeeze out some more rain days before we wrap up
this year`s monsoon season.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 417 AM MDT Wed Sep 10 2025
VFR conditions expected through the period with skies SKC through
the morning and winds light and VRB. Winds will becoming SE/S by
18Z at 6-12 knots. Skies will become FEW at 10-15kft during the
afternoon.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 417 AM MDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Fire weather concerns are low with low fire danger. Generally dry
weather can be expected over the next day or two, with isolated
showers and storms over the Sacs/Gila Mtns and west of the Divide
as high moisture values slowly move in from the south and west.
Min RH values will gradually trend up through the end of the work
week and into the week. Temperatures will remain above average
today and tomorrow with a gradual decrease back to around average
by the weekend. Winds will remain light to low-end breezy each
afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  98  73  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            91  60  90  61 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               95  65  92  66 /   0   0   0  10
Alamogordo               95  66  94  66 /  10   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               71  50  70  49 /  20   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    92  66  91  66 /  10   0   0  10
Silver City              87  61  85  61 /  20  10  20  20
Deming                   97  65  95  66 /  10  10  10  10
Lordsburg                94  65  92  66 /  20  20  20  10
West El Paso Metro       95  72  94  72 /   0   0   0  10
Dell City                95  63  93  63 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             97  69  95  70 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               89  64  87  63 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   96  69  95  70 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             95  68  93  69 /   0   0   0  10
White Sands HQ           95  68  93  68 /   0   0   0  10
Jornada Range            94  66  92  66 /  10   0   0  10
Hatch                    97  65  95  67 /  10   0   0  10
Columbus                 97  67  95  67 /   0   0  10  10
Orogrande                93  65  91  65 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  82  53  81  52 /  20   0   0   0
Mescalero                82  55  82  52 /  30  10   0   0
Timberon                 80  53  78  52 /  10   0   0   0
Winston                  85  55  83  55 /  20   0  20  10
Hillsboro                92  63  91  62 /  10   0  10  10
Spaceport                92  64  91  65 /   0   0   0  10
Lake Roberts             87  57  86  57 /  20  10  20  20
Hurley                   90  61  88  61 /  20  10  10  10
Cliff                    94  64  92  64 /  20  20  20  20
Mule Creek               90  60  87  60 /  20  20  20  20
Faywood                  90  63  87  63 /  10   0  10  10
Animas                   95  66  92  66 /  20  20  20  10
Hachita                  94  65  91  65 /  10  10  10  10
Antelope Wells           93  63  91  64 /  10  10  10  10
Cloverdale               88  62  86  62 /  20  20  20  10
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...38-Rogers

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion