Cairo, West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

965
FXUS61 KRLX 200534
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
134 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Warm weather prevails for the weekend, but some areas see chances
of precipitation. Chances of rain and storms become more
widespread for the next work week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1230 AM Saturday...
Unseasonably warm weather will continue today. A weak cold
front has become nearly stationary across northern West Virginia
this morning. This has allowed for an increase in moisture over
the mountains. The moisture appears to be sufficient for some
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. With a weak
flow and a frontal boundary for focusing, any storms will be
slow moving and could quickly produce several inches of
rainfall, especially in the northern West Virginia mountains.
The dry weather from the last month and a half means that the
area can take 2 to 3 inches of rainfall before any problems
develop, so not expecting any widespread issues. Will have to
keep a close eye on this situation however.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Saturday...
Starting Sunday, high pressure at the surface weakens along
with upper level ridging flattening allowing for some potential
for diurnal shower and storm activity across southeast Ohio and
maybe along the mountains. Temperatures rise into the lower 80s
along the mountains allowing for some elevated heat source to
remain a fuel for development as well as southeasterly flow
along the leeward sides of the mountains supporting upslope.
This upslope flow will consequently support orographic lift for
another source for activity development.
With a decent moisture flux and chances for more activity for
Monday as a low pressure system is forecast to traverse across
the Great Lakes. This system will bring a upper level short wave
to the area as upper level ridging drifts off to the east and
weakens. Lowering heights continues through Tuesday as the
upper level system settles in which will likely generate more
activity on Tuesday which will be both non-diurnal and diurnal
in nature. Tuesday is forecast to be the most active with likely
PoPs during the afternoon and evening. However, thunderstorm
chances will be on the lower side going into Tuesday, but will
dramatically increase by Tuesday afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 AM Saturday...
By Wednesday, a cold front is forecast to move through which
will keep diurnal PoPs on the table for the afternoon and
evening to account for shower and storm potential. A low
pressure system is then forecast to develop out in the Midwest
and approach the area by Friday. This system, if it comes to
fruition, will impact the area and keep active weather on the
table for us going into the weekend. Starting midweek
temperatures will stay below the 80 degree mark for the rest of
this period.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1230 AM Saturday...
Some early morning river valley fog can be expected in and near
the mountains. Some clouds from a nearly stationary cold front
over northern West Virginia could hamper the fog formation.
This leads to a low confidence for the fog at EKN. After any fog
burns off this morning, expect VFR conditions for the remainder
of the TAF period with the exception of some scattered showers
and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening in the mountains.
Those storms could produce brief IFR conditions.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High, except low for fog and medium for
afternoon showers/thunderstorms in the mountains.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may or may not form in the northern
West Virginia mountains at EKN.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE                                   SAT 09/20/25
UTC 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
EDT 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Compared to historical records and the 1991-2020 U.S. Climate
Normals, it was a very warm summer across the NWS Charleston
forecast area. The summer season encapsulates the period of June
1st through August 31st. Mean temperatures for the 2025 summer
season were generally 1 to 3 degrees above normal. This translated
into four official NWS Charleston climate locations making the
top 10 in terms of their warmest mean summer temperatures on record.
As is typical during the summer season, precipitation totals
varied rather significantly across the forecast area depending
on location, ranging from as low as 7 to 9 inches in portions of
southern Ohio and northeast Kentucky, to as high as 16 to nearly
20 inches across some locations in the lowlands of West Virginia
and northeast mountains. This resulted in a wide range of
precipitation departures depending on location, with some areas
ending up well below normal in terms of total precipitation,
while others well above normal, with the overall spread of
departures ranging from approximately +/- 5 inches. Even with
this wide range of precipitation totals across the forecast area,
no top 10s were set at any of the official NWS Charleston climate
locations in terms of wettest or driest summer on record.
Summer 2025 Top Tens Set (Mean Temperature)
-------------------------------------------------------------------
  Location             Top 10 Rank                Observed Value
- Elkins, WV         : 2nd Warmest             -> 72.1 F
- Huntington, WV     : 4th Warmest             -> 77.9 F
- Clarksburg, WV     : Tied 4th Warmest        -> 74.5 F
- Beckley, WV        : 6th Warmest             -> 71.9 F
-------------------------------------------------------------------
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/20
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...RPY
CLIMATE...GW

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion