Cairo, West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

979
FXUS61 KRLX 220123
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
923 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon/evening.
The chance for showers and storms then continues through the
work week at times as multiple disturbances affect the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 915 PM Sunday...
Showers and highly isolated thunderstorms continue to shift
eastward across the central/eastern CWA, with activity
continuing to weaken given loss of daytime heating and moving
into what was already a more stable environment. Most of this
activity will exit the CWA over the next couple of hours, giving
way to a mainly dry and warm overnight, outside of the potential
for a few isolated showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder,
mainly across the Mid-Ohio Valley. Lows will be in the upper 50s
to mid 60s across the lowlands, with 50s in the mountains.
Given H925 flow at more/less 15-20kts+ overnight, not much fog
is anticipated, with the one possible exception being across the
deeper mountain valleys, primarily the Tygart Valley. Overnight
PoPs and the chance for thunder have been updated, both of
which were lowered. The rest of the forecast remains on track.
As of 627 PM Sunday...
Have increased PoPs over the next few hours across southeast
Ohio and the lowlands of WV to correlate with a line of
scattered showers and thunderstorms that have developed via a
weak crossing shortwave. Gusty winds and locally heavy rain
remain the main threats, with isolated strong gusts possible,
primarily across southeast Ohio and the northern lowlands of WV.
The rest of the forecast remains on track.
As of 127 PM Sunday...
Frontal boundary stalled across the area will slowly move north
throughout the day today, with flow turning more southerly and
an uptick in the humidity/dew points expected. Dew points should
rise to the lower to possibly mid 60s in spots. A shortwave
crossing the area will help to generate more showers and storms,
with best chances looking to be across SE Ohio/Mid Ohio Valley
and NE KY zones. Increasing deep layer shear and instability,
will lead to the potential for storms to become organized, with
a damaging wind and possible hail threat. SPC has added a
marginal risk, mainly just to the west of the area, but it does
clip our SE Ohio and NE KY zones.
Monday will continue to be active across the area with a humid air
mass in place as area remains in the warm sector of low pressure
across the Great Lakes region. Showers and storms will be on the
increase, particularly in the afternoon and evening hours. Storms
will contain brief heavy downpours as PW values surge well above
seasonal norms. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be
possible on Monday, with ample instability and shear on the order of
30-40 kts. Damaging winds will be the primary hazard with any
convection on Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 127 PM Sunday...
Tuesday will continue to be active across the area as low pressure
skirts across the Great Lakes/Canada, and multiple shortwaves
continue to traverse the area. An isolated strong to severe storm
will also be possible on Tuesday, although chances look to be
somewhat low at this point. Wednesday looks to continue to be very
active across the area as low pressure across the midwest starts to
organize, eventually carving out a deep trough to our west.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 128 PM Sunday...
Active weather continues Thursday onward as a developing low
pressure system takes hold across the central U.S. and gradually
makes its way eastward towards the area. This will result in not
only showery/stormy conditions, but cooler conditions across the
area as it carves out a trough across the region.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 800 PM Sunday...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to slowly
progress eastward across the forecast area, with most of the
activity dissipating/exiting by ~4Z. Thereafter, only ISOLD
showers and perhaps a storm are two are expected, primarily
across SE OH, NE KY, and the northern WV lowlands. Brief
MVFR/IFR VSBY is possible with any heavier showers or storms.
Otherwise, VFR persists across the area tonight, with the only
other concern being the potential for MVFR/IFR stratus on the
eastern slopes of the northeast mountains, and MVFR/IFR VSBY
with fog at EKN. Given low confidence in fog formation there,
have kept restrictions limited to MVFR for the time being.
A mainly dry start on Monday will transition to an increasing
chance for SCT showers/storms during the afternoon/evening,
particularly across the Mid-Ohio Valley and northern WV
lowlands, although an ISOLD shower/storm could occur just about
anywhere. Brief MVFR/IFR VSBY is possible with any heavier
showers or storms.
Calm or light SSE flow is expected tonight, with light SW flow
on Monday. Strong, gusty winds within thunderstorms cannot be
ruled out late in the TAF period given some strong storm potential
later on Monday.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief MVFR/IFR VSBY is possible with any
heavier showers or storms tonight and once again later on Monday.
Flight restrictions at EKN later tonight may be worse than
currently forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE                                                            MON 09/22/25
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
Brief periods of IFR conditions are possible with heavier
showers or thunderstorms throughout the week. IFR is also
possible at night with low stratus and/or fog.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SL/GW
NEAR TERM...SL/GW
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...GW

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion