Bunnlevel, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

848
FXUS62 KRAH 130613
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
213 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered to our north will extend down through the Mid
Atlantic and the Carolinas through the weekend, although a
northeasterly wind flow and passage of an upper level trough into
the region will bring periods of clouds each day.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Friday...
* Quiet and seasonable weather.
Weak/narrow mid level troughing still extend over central NC this
afternoon, atop a surface ridge nosing in from the N and NE. Fair
skies or just sct convective clouds are present over much of central
NC this afternoon, although a couple of NE-SW bands of bkn daytime
cumulus persist over central NC, one across the Triad and another
over E NC stretching into the E Coastal Plain. With slightly deeper
and better low level moisture below 800 mb in the E, a few sprinkles
can`t be ruled out E of I-95 late this afternoon, but the overall
deeply dry air noted on GOES layer WV imagery and ACARS soundings
strongly favors dry weather the rest of today through tonight. With
a slight stirring expected and some surface heat flux into the
night, the threat for fog appears a bit lower than this morning, but
we still may see areas of light fog over the N, mainly N of the
Triangle. With minimal change in air mass, temps tonight should be
close to last night`s, with lows mostly in the upper 50s to lower
60s, near to slightly below seasonal normals. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM Friday...
High pressure will be centered over southeastern West Virginia
Saturday morning and will move little over the next 24 hours. The
persistent stationary front off the North Carolina coast should send
some cloud cover across eastern counties, although there is no
chance of rain in the forecast. Highs will be similar or slightly
cooler than today`s values, generally around 80 degrees. Lows will
also be slightly cooler, mostly in the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 AM Saturday...
* Near to slightly below normal temperatures to start the work week,
  before returning to above normal temperatures.
* Isolated to scattered showers possible Monday evening through
  Wednesday night, with the best chance in the east.
A backdoor front now looks to stay to our north on Monday, while a
coastal low should form from a stalled frontal system off the coast.
This low should influence the weather in central NC for much of the
long term period. While there is still large spread in the location
and movement of the low, it looks more likely that rain will be
possible further inland, and not just confined to the coast.
Isolated to scattered showers look to be possible Monday evening
through Thursday night, with the best chance in the east on Tuesday
and Wednesday.
In terms of temperatures, the long term period will start out near
normal on Monday. This means that highs Monday afternoon should be
in the low 80s. Temperatures will drop a few degrees on Tuesday and
Wednesday, with highs in the mid-to-upper 70s to low 80s each
afternoon. After the coastal low moves to our north, temperatures
look to warm back up into the 80s to end the work week. Low
temperatures each night are expected to range from the upper 50s to
the low-to-mid 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 AM Saturday...
A couple sites over the far NE Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain
are currently reporting some IFR/MVFR visibilities from fog, and
most guidance still depicts potential for patchy fog across these
areas overnight. However, the highest HREF probabilities of less
than 5 mile visibilities are near the VA border, and fog coverage on
the latest HRRR is quite limited. So confidence remains low that
fog/mist will reach RDU and RWI, but it can`t be ruled out, and
continue to prevail VFR with a TEMPO for MVFR visibilities from 08z
to 12z at these sites. VFR will prevail at the other sites overnight
and everywhere by mid morning onward, with just some scattered to
broken cumulus around 4-8 kft and some high clouds, especially east.
Winds will be very light to calm overnight, increasing to 5-10 kts
from mid morning into the afternoon, gusting to 15-20 kts south and
east (including FAY and RWI).
Looking beyond 00z Sunday: VFR conditions are likely to dominate
into the middle of next week, with fair skies except for sct-bkn VFR
clouds each afternoon. Mid and high clouds are expected to increase
with patchy afternoon showers possible Mon and especially Tue/Wed as
a weak upper level low settles over the Carolinas.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...Helock
AVIATION...Danco/Hartfield

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion